Transcript: Episode #224: Rage Against the Regime

Below is the complete transcript for this podcast episode. This transcript was generated using an AI transcription service and has not been reviewed by a human editor. As a result, certain words in the text may not accurately reflect the speaker's actual words. This is especially noticeable when speakers have strong accents, as AI transcription may introduce more errors in interpreting and transcribing their speech. Therefore, it is advisable not to reference this transcript in any article or document without cross-referencing the timestamp to ensure the accuracy of the guest's precise words.

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Host 0:15

During the current crisis unfolding in Myanmar, events are happening so fast, it can feel challenging just to keep up with them. And we're working to increase our podcast production to stay abreast of this ever changing crisis. And besides our podcast, we encourage you to check out the blogs on our website insight myanmar.org, where you can also sign up for our regular newsletter. And you can follow our social media sites just look for insight Myanmar on your preferred social media platform. With that, let's head into our show.

1:17

Is in my way that really not a good idea, I absolutely hate it.

Brad 1:58

And welcome back. My guest today is a breath of fresh air in an environment where we have very limited information about what's actually going on in a conflict that we're all deeply concerned by. But many of us are chronically under informed about. He runs a page on substack, which is a website, some of our audience may be familiar with asked him to explain it in a second that gives a lot of very detailed, highly informative information about the conflict as it extends all across Myanmar, providing some of the most up to date. And insightful information I've seen presented in a single place on this conflict in a very long time. So I'd like to thank you for joining us. And I'd like to give you the opportunity to introduce yourself and your work for the benefit of our audience.

Saw Htee Char 2:47

Well, hello, thanks for having me. I'm calling myself Saul teacher, which is a pseudonym for my safety because I work on both sides of the border, including insight Myanmar. And when I'm not there, I'm in Thailand, where there's also a danger of regime, Myanmar regime spies and agents working in this this place that has become a hub for the opposition press and opposition organizations. So my experience is mostly in in Kofu lay the coronation in southeastern Myanmar. Before the coup and before COVID I was working with a bilateral international non governmental audit organization doing work with refugees and my work was with livelihoods. So trying to help resettled refugees from earlier conflicts start farming or small businesses or some way of generating income with which to support themselves their families and their communities. So I did that throughout 19 Sorry, 2019 and 20. But then after the coup, I have been part time in Thailand part time in pithily I should say that when I was still inside me Myanmar I would travel around to different parts of the country so I would I manage activities in karate and and the far south in what they call 20th ie we call Korean Army brigade for. So those are my areas that I managed where I managed programs, but I also got sent around to buy ammo and kitchen stay sit away in our con state Shan State, mon state. So I actually saw a lot of the country. The first work I ever did was in Myanmar was in the Irrawaddy delta. And 2011 when most of the projects were still post Cyclone Nargis type projects. And so I'm with another organization now, that does humanitarian work on both sides of the border. So that gives me opportunities to be with the Korean Army sometimes to be with Korean government, administration, as well as humanitarian organizations. Especially health oriented, like, we go to hospitals inside, in liberated parts of Kofu lay where medical services are provided both to local civilians, and to injured soldiers in the war. So we see all of those. So I'm still doing some livelihoods work as I can like helping farmers at high altitude, who are just subsistence farmers, and they're looking for some way to earn money. So I'm bringing in cash crops like coffee, which grows well at their altitude, and which has a market in Thailand where they can earn hard currency. That's the kind of work I do in peacetime since the coup. And since this version of the civil war started, I've also been reporting, as you pointed out, through my weekly Bolton called Burma coup resistance notes, and I publish this, both on Facebook and on substack. Facebook is probably the largest, the most used social media platform in Myanmar, though people also use tick tock and YouTube a lot. So my goal in writing this commentary, or sorry, this bulletin in English, is to get the word out to the rest of the world about what's happening here. And I, I would like that, I would like people to know so that support can be generated. And so that people making, for example, diplomatic decisions, will be more likely to do make the right decisions about whom to partner with insight, Myanmar, and what to expect as far as the outcome of the war.

Brad 7:55

So I find that very interesting. Let's let's focus for a moment on that language element. Because some of the audience might be aware of this, I got involved with this podcast originally, I was brought on as a guest because I started a Facebook page to translate Burmese memes into English to try and provide and protest signs to try and provide English language content. In response to a large number of people that I saw who basically rejected that the coup was a coup who rejected that the protests against the coup were legitimate protests, based on the grounds that Western media would only ever show pictures of Burmese people holding English language protest signs, and therefore the whole thing must be fake, it must be staged and all these other conspiracy theories that were coming about what was your motivation? In deciding that English language content for this has to be provided? Like you're you you're not a professional sort of military analyst from from the sounds I mean, you obviously are working in this space, and have a lot of experience with Myanmar and and the humanitarian situation. But what made you feel like you have to start consolidating this information and translating it

Saw Htee Char 9:08

just that that English seems to be the lingua franca of international work. And I wanted this to be accessible to people anyway, who don't read Burmese and outside of Myanmar. You know, that's a small group of people who who could understand what's being published in the Myanmar press. So that's it like making get this information from insight Myanmar to the outside.

Brad 9:38

And so, just on this point, how much of a difference do you perceive between the English language coverage of the Myanmar situation and the domestic coverage of the situation?

Saw Htee Char 9:51

At first, there was a huge difference. I think. International news outlets have done quite a bit of catching up recently, but It's tempting for the Western press to see civil wars and rebel movements and coos just as kind of internal strife, generically, and it's easy to dismiss like, that's their problem in that other country. And not something to get involved with, not something to worry about. And I what I see here actually is not just internal strife, it's a really brutal and sadistic military regime, trying to monopolize power over a population of 55 million people who do not want it, and who are ready to put their lives on the line in order to get back the the their brief experience with with at least partial democracy during the period of 2015, to 2020. Yeah, the coup happened in February 2021. That's when all that came to an end. And this generation of young people just decided it was better to risk your life and to live under the dictatorship. And so they have been fighting since about a month after the coup. And it really is a war of like, people's aspirations against a harsh military dictatorship, which has served no purpose other than to enrich itself. So I want that to be understood. I want, I want people to believe that the people of Myanmar deserve their support. And whatever way we can give it, and I want them to be ready when the change comes, because I believe that the regime will fall, and the democracy movement will succeed. And so I want people to understand that that's happening and to accept the new order as soon as it comes into being.

Brad 12:23

Excellent. So let's let's talk about that new water coming into being because increasingly, the guests that we've had on the podcast have been telling us that this is actually now a reality versus, you know, 2021, early 2022, when a lot of commentary was highly doubtful that the resistance movement could ever see success. So you've been tracking this discontent, you've been tracking the conflict in great detail. So let's just look at first and foremost, where are you getting your your information from? How do you know what's going on on the ground?

Saw Htee Char 13:00

Okay, so I have a few different ways of tracking events inside Myanmar. The biggest is the Myanmar press, which is quite well developed. There are between five and 10 national news outlets that publish multiple stories every day about events in Burmese language, and then there are a number of other outlets that focus on specific parts of the country like kitchen, or Kofu, lay or the Delta, mon state, etc. So I look at those also, in some cases, they look at towns. So the media is my largest source, because it's a very good source and where I am, when I'm in Thailand, actually, I can meet a lot of the media people there. They the editors, and the broadcasters are there while the the stringers the The reporters are inside. So the second information source, I use that people I know from when I used to work full time in Myanmar during civilian life, and some of them are in war zones now. Some of them are refugees now. So I reach out to them when things are happening in their areas, and so I can get information directly. So that's been very valuable. And the third source is my own direct observations when I am in conflict zones. So I have those three.

Brad 14:43

Interesting. So okay, so you're getting quite a bit and obviously eyewitness accounts like the the veracity of your own experiences is something that just can't be beaten. So, okay, so then let's look at what it is that you You've discovered what it is that you've found in the information that you're making available in the English language. On the whole overview, how is the conflict looking for the Burmese military?

Saw Htee Char 15:14

I would be very depressed right now if I were a member of the old Burmese military, because they just can't seem to stop losing territory every day nowadays. The Burmese military for all of its its enormous manpower and armaments, has never been very good at fighting other militaries. And and what we're talking about as the ethnic military is before the coup, they could go on onslaughts, but they've never been able to make these insurgencies disappear. Since the the attempted coup and 2021. This enormous military has been getting ambushed and blown up on the roads and shot at by young people who never had any thought of warfare before then. So they've found themselves on the losing end of skirmishes and ambushes right from the start. And the old ethnic armies, which have better weaponry and more experienced than the new peoples defense forces. They've also been pressing their advantage during this war, to reduce the presence of the old Burma military in their areas by taking over camps and controlling roads. And just generally making it impossible for the regime to maintain itself everywhere that it used to be, which has caused the the geographic shrinkage of the regime. Now this is a process that was proceeding slowly for most of three years. Up until late October of this year. You know, they'd been the junta had been pushed out of most of Chin State most of Karenni state. A lot of Kullu lay a lot of Chin State. But it was a gradual process that could go on for years. Nobody knew. I always thought there's there could only be one possible ending in the end because no matter how well armed the the old Burma army was, you know, you just can't fight the whole population forever. But since October 27 When operation 1027 began, the shrinkage of the junta has really accelerated. And this came out of North northern Shan state which might surprise some people because like the big powerful ethnic armies are the Qur'an the kitchen, the Archon. Well, northern Shan it's the kokang which is a small sign of ethnic Chinese population and the tang and the third member of their alliance is the Arakan army, which is confusing outsiders that Oregon State is in the southwest of the country, where the American army has a lot of strength in the Northeast. That's, it's because the Oregon army began in the Northeast, and then, you know, extended into its own state in the southwest. So anyway, you got these three ethnic armies that launched this offensive on October 27. And have had enormous success with it. They've taken last count I think over 400 junta positions, ranging from command bases to camps to like bridge outposts and checkpoints. And now I saw that they have liberated over 20 towns across mostly northern Myanmar. And so now, there seems to be it seems to be the beginning of the end for the top I know I think they can't be written off yet. They still have their their jets in there. helicopters to carry out airstrikes. They certain that they still have some troops that can be counted on not to surrender the first line of battle. So they will hold out for a number of months, probably, but they will continue to shrink. And I think really now that the end that the shape of the end will take is becoming a lot clearer.

Brad 20:32

So let me backtrack a little bit. You You said that the military over the last, you know, the majority of last three years, had slowly been pushed out of areas like chin. Now, Chin State also saw some genuinely horrifying offensives. We saw, you know, tatlong being burned to the ground multiple times, when you say that the military have been pushed out of a specific region that comes with a corollary that the military is still able to do. bombings are still able to do artillery shellings. I believe that in Korean and Karenni. The military were on the retreat, but they were still able to attack IDP camps from the air, for example. Is that Is that something that you're factoring in when you say the military has pushed out of these regions? That's still distinct from saying that the civilians of those regions are safe from the military?

Saw Htee Char 21:29

That's true, because the nature of airpower is that it can go everywhere, including into liberated areas. So they are bombing refugee camps, and hospitals and schools, and monasteries and churches, they can still do that as long as they hold the airfields and have enough fuel and bombs, which they still seem to, even while the rest of the country is running out of fuel, that there's enough for the airstrikes. So that means that a lot of areas that having liberated still are not safe. Yeah, life is severely disrupted.

Brad 22:18

Are there safe regions in the country?

Saw Htee Char 22:22

There's nowhere that that's safe from airstrikes.

Brad 22:26

So there's no there's no version of active air defense on the part of the resistance there is no place to hide from that,

Saw Htee Char 22:33

right. They, they opposition forces, to my knowledge have not deployed surface to air missiles, for example, that could take down jets, the chrony managed to shoot down a couple of jets, but they are kind of these old defective Chinese ones. And a couple of helicopters have been well, one was shot down in Kachin State, and in the early going, and others have been damaged by drones or machine gunfire. But there there isn't an effective response to the the air strikes yet. I know the the Korean Army and certain other people have got hold of 107 millimeter rockets, that they've been able to fire into air bases and destroy some airplanes and some fuel tanks and other infrastructure in the air bases. But that's been kind of rare because those air bases are very heavily protected there. They have drone jammers operating over them and secure perimeters around them. It's hard to get close to them.

Brad 23:47

But so focusing then on the on the actual ground operations as they are. You're saying that the military have been on the retreat consistently for four months now. Has there been a period of time when the military were actually winning when they're actually gaining territory when they're actually you know, losing fewer troops than the resistance? We're losing old? Has that just not been the reality since the resistance began?

Saw Htee Char 24:16

I don't think there was ever a period where the junta was winning. The nature of guerrilla warfare is it's much easier for you know, any Iraqi irregular hidden force to to inflict damage than it is for the established conventional military to find them and and hurt them. There have been instances where people's Defense Force camps were located and rated and where soldiers resistant soldiers were killed. They Because for the tomato capture and kill is the same thing they don't they don't take prisoners they kill them. There was a case of tampilan and chin say that you mentioned the the chin liberated for about six months this year and then the the junta went on a drive to retake it and we're able to, but that's been the exception. And most cases the junta has lost battles, and on several occasions they've launched these big offensives to try to retake lost territory. Like they tried to retake control of the bumbo Michiana Road in Kachin state for months, they withdrew troops from Shan State and sent them there. They use airpower. They use artillery and mortars. For months, all I did was lose troops and they never broke through the same thing. And Karenni were when like, the currency forces took over Messick and the far south of cranny state. And then the, the junta spent months and a lot of troops and equipment trying to get that back. And they never did. They got partway along and then the karate had this, this tactic of attacking again far in the rear after they've been pushed back, which resets the whole battle situation like suddenly the tomato has to the Burma army, I mean, has to pull back because its supply lines have been cut way behind the front. And now with the Battle of local underway that the cranium forces are in the process of liberating their capital city, the old Burma army has had to pull all of his troops out of messy township completely leave leaving the township completely liberated so that they can avoid losing local. But I think they're going to lose it anyway, they've already lost at least two thirds of it. So I would say that this military for all of its firepower, and its size, has never been a very effective fighting force against militaries. And in fact, it's never faced any any foreign antagonist. It's only fought its own people since since independence, really.

Brad 27:37

And so what does that say? You say liberated, you know, use that word that that a lot of these regions around cranial liberated because the military had to pull back? What does liberated functionally look like on the ground? Like, to what extent are they free from the molestations of the military free from the threat of let's say, arbitrary arrest, intention, torture, arson, theft of property, and all of the typical abuses that that accompany the tomato wherever they go?

Saw Htee Char 28:11

So that's a good question I liberated isn't black and white. So there are areas that I been in where you just don't have to worry about Burmese authorities because they're not there. The Burma Burma armies have been pushed out there and Oh, Burmese police or any kind of administrative authorities. So that's, that's the best kind of liberated you can still get bombed to there. But you, you won't get arrested or heavier rights abused by the Burma army. And those kind of most liberated areas. There are others where the Burma army is present only in certain fortified centers. But the people's defense forces or ethnic armies are strong enough to keep them pinned down so that they can't go out and make trouble for people. And where there is no junta administration a lot of the civilian administrators and liberate areas have been chased out. Some of them were killed. So even where the junta has a military presence, it often doesn't have an administrative structure. And in the these more liberated areas like whole towns recently, the N ug national unity government and local authorities have set up liberated civilian administration again, providing services. So the other gradations of liberation, and sometimes you can lose an area where the the junta forces have been expelled and then the They suddenly get sent back in. And like, one time I'd gone in one, one area and it had to come out a different way because troops showed up. So security, security is so much better than it used to be, because there's so fewer camps, so fewer junta positions from which they can shoot, and fire mortars. But yeah, as you say, No place is safe from from airstrikes, and there can still be mortar shelling and like sudden appearances of junta troops in other places, even though the junta troops can't stay because they're in danger. But they can, they can show up and do some damage.

Brad 30:46

Okay, and so that's, that's sort of pose the question, why has this change, come about like proof before the coup? Granted, we know that the Burmese military leadership with lying about the situation of their military, despotic regimes always do this. But it was still widely considered to be the second largest standing military in Southeast Asia, beaten only by Vietnam, and was also considered to be one of the most capable and battle hardened because the military had fomented and perpetuated an endless cycle of conflict that they could continually throw their troops into, to harden them and train them in combat conditions. Why then, now, after not even three years of conflict, are we seeing such a rapid collapse of the military infrastructure?

Saw Htee Char 31:43

I think, for one thing, the old Burma army was never as powerful as itself and others thought we don't know what the total number of people in uniform was certainly over 200,000. But, you know, military analysts who defected to the revolution, have given figures like 120,000 combat troops. Added to that were some up to 80,000 Police who could who could be mobilized as troops. But there have been so many casualties. You know, at least 30,000 was the figure that I've seen that it's shrunk the size of the military. And it's also caused a decline in the quality of people being sent into battle. So as the number of professional troops shrinks, they're sending in force conscripts they're sending in prisoners are sending in recalled veterans, some of whom are a fairly advanced age. I think the common denominator is that these new troops don't want to be there. They are unwilling. And that makes them more likely to surrender, or just run when battle breaks out. I think that's what we've been seeing.

Brad 33:24

But so are you saying that the casual because one would presume that casualties are going to be more widespread among exactly that category, that you're talking about the people who are not particularly willing, the people who have been conscripted recently, the people who are young and inexperienced, but are you saying that the casualties were actually taking place? Among the more experienced sort of the tip of the spear the the more capable units?

Saw Htee Char 33:51

Yes. Because that's who was fighting in the beginning, before the junta got desperate and started throwing all these other kinds of people into battle. It was the standing army that was preyed on by the roadside bombs, the drone bombing the snipers. That's who was fighting and dying throughout at least the first two years of the war.

Brad 34:19

Oh, wow. So they were so they were effectively putting their best foot forward, early on, and they were still losing. Yes,

Saw Htee Char 34:27

they were. Because like I said, they they've never faced another professional army. They faced ethnic militias. So their effectiveness was was hasn't been great. Since the coup and no time. Have they racked up a lot of victories? They've been pretty much on a protracted losing streak throughout the spring revolution.

Brad 34:56

Okay, that's so that's incredible. So then you What What about on the other hand, the PDF, so we're looking at basically two different types of resistance groups. You've got your iOS or ER O's or whatever they're called This Week, effectively, organizations that have had standing combat capabilities for years in a lot of cases for decades, and have actively been resisting and have actively been administering territories that are to varying degrees under their control. And then we have the PDFs, which are predominantly I think Bomar, which did not exist prior to the coup did not have military experience, and didn't even really have, you know, weapons and equipment. How have they fared across the last three years?

Saw Htee Char 35:46

Well, so yeah, differently. They, the ethnic armies, as you say, were a lot better prepared for this fighting. The, the ethnic Burman youth, when they figured out that they needed to fight for their freedom. Suddenly, they needed guns, and they needed technical knowledge to use guns, they needed mortars. They needed organization, they needed leadership, they had none of these things. These were people who were students, or farmers or workers. And suddenly they needed military things, and work and they turn well to the ethnic armies, of course, who had those things, which also happened back in 1988. And that instance, it was a failure. The young people who went to the jungle from the cities didn't fit in very well, they didn't show a lot of respect for the ethnic armies as their hosts, some of them didn't survive very well in the jungle, they died of malaria. Some of them just, you know, got tired of jungle life and gave up and went back, some of them left the country. So when these ethnic Burman youth started showing up in and the ethnic periphery, wanting to fight, you can understand the the skepticism of the ethnic leaders. You know, a lot of city people with no jungle survival skills just showing up to eat their food and who knows how long they'd stay. In the event though, the the youth and the ethnic armies have worked out great symbiotic relationships, where the youth agreed to put themselves under the tutelage of the ethnic armies in return for getting training and weapons uniforms. And being organized into battalions. The ethnic armies, on the other hand, took command of these new battalions, and with them expanded their own armies. So like the Korean army now contains ethnic Burman battalions. You know, majority Burman, like the Cobra column Venom there, they have Korean commanders, but a lot of the soldiers are Burmese. So it's worked out better for both sides then in 1988. And I think that that kind of relationship has been a game changer, because for the first time really in history, there's a majority minority Alliance and collaboration. And I've been impressed because in the beginning, when I was there, like I saw the the skepticism of the Korean like, we don't want all these outsiders coming in, we don't know how many of them are spies. And what can they do for us? Well, now it's it's normal to to bring in people from the heartland or from the cities and and train them and integrate them into the ethnic forces. And so there's a kind of respect I would say the majority because of its need, had to learn respect for the ethnic minorities for the first time really. And and I've seen this in some of them. You know, they're they're in the jungle now. Under the the training of an ethnic army, and they are doing things like that Learning though the current language and being commanded by current officers, you know, that shows respect.

Brad 40:09

So I know this calls for enormous conjecture, but do you do you feel that the 1988 revolution could have gone differently if there had been a different attitude towards ethnic minorities?

Saw Htee Char 40:22

Definitely. I remember reading the land of the green ghosts, by Pascal KU Tway of believe his name of the author. He's a ethnic Cayenne from Kearney State, and he went to the jungles in 1988, from the University, and he saw he saw all these these ethnic Burmese showing up and, and not really doing very well. So I think if they had done things, then the way they're doing them now, I don't know who would have succeeded. There are differences between this time in that like 1988, didn't come after a period of five years of relative freedom. So people's expectations were not as high as they were in 2021. And there was no Internet, there was no social media that have been really heavily harnessed by the opposition. So, you know, I don't know, what would have happened, I think the the rebellion against military rule back then might have lasted longer if there had been that sort of respectful relationship

Brad 41:39

is fascinating to think about. And it's very good that at least, you know, finally, we do, in fact, see that, that cultural shift, that attitude shift, and I think this particular revolutionary movement, even before it became an armed revolution, seem to embrace a lot of social progress and a lot of change in in values. Because, I mean, when your democracy and your civil liberties are being taken away, quibbling over, you know, minor differences of person and identity just seem meaningless, and, and petty. So hopefully, that that continues on, but looking then towards the conflict, and hopefully towards victory. Have, have we seen this rapid acceleration because not just in terms of territorial gains, not just in terms of, you know, the numbers, but one thing that we keep seeing on social media, this is being plastered? I'm even looking on your sub stack right now. And there is, you know, a picture here, these seemingly huge caches of weapons and ammunition. I don't know what I think I'm looking at landmines here as well. artillery shells. This was captured in in my way by the tongue. Are we looking at like a serious capture of military material? By the ethnic forces? Is this actually accelerating their ability to to wage war?

Saw Htee Char 43:19

Well, I have that same thought. I was looking at those pictures of the huge caches of weapons. Surely when you start turning those weapons against the old Burma army, that should make a battlefield difference, right? howitzers, armored cars and tanks. Long range, mortars. Yeah. Another question in my mind, when I see that is like, to what extent will the tang and kokang who have been capturing these these great stocks of weapons to what extent will they share them with the other revolutionary forces?

Brad 44:04

So I mean, is there because that's that's a very interesting dimension right there like weapons, the way that the weapons have been moving around, like we know, for example, that the the UW SA, who have remained reasonably neutral, the white state army have remained reasonably neutral. But they've been supplying weapons. We know that the Cochin independence army have been supplying weapons to different groups. So there definitely seems to be a trade and a supply network between different ethnic organizations and resistance groups. To what extent is that really happening? How how unified are these various groups when it comes to sharing material and how insulated are they?

Saw Htee Char 44:50

I don't have the answer to that question. Like I said, I'm wondering if, if these great stocks or weapons will be shared in order to increase The the chances for other revolutionary forces around the country to have their effects on, you know, eliminating the old Burma army.

Brad 45:15

Okay, so it's not okay. So it'll be interesting to, to watch that because a lot of this stuff like you need to have the equipment for it, I'm looking at a lot of artillery shells. What I'm not looking at our artillery pieces, you clearly have to capture the actual gun to be able to use the ammunition that goes with that gun. So presumably, we might wind up with a situation where one group has a weapon but no ammunition for it. And the other group has ammunition but no weapon to use it with. And if they're not in communication with one another that could, that could that could really hinder their effectiveness.

Saw Htee Char 45:50

Actually, I think most of the the munitions that you see in those pictures are mortar shells. In some cases, there are rocket propelled grenades. And those those are just have portable launchers. Nowadays, we're seeing for the first time, how it's our artillery pieces. And I don't I saw a video of the tang loading one of those cannons onto a truck, obviously to take it somewhere and use it. I have to imagine that wherever the howitzers are there, their shells are to

Brad 46:31

do just a fair assumption. Yeah, I just thought because I can see the motor shells. I'm looking at these pictures, I see the motor shells, but I'm also seeing metal long metal cylinders. So you're indicating to me that those are rocket launchers. And

Saw Htee Char 46:45

no, actually, I'm not sure what those are. I consulted with some of my military friends. I'm not a military veteran myself, as it was. So what are these in? The best guess is that those are casings for mortar rounds.

Brad 47:01

Oh, okay. Angel. Okay. That's good to know. It's very good to know. But I think it just highlights just how even though we have pictures, how limited the picture of the the realities on the ground can still be because it's not like the publishing, you know, full stocktakes of every bullet in every weapon that they've acquired and translating them to English and uploading them. So we still have to do a little bit of investigative work. But in any event, these huge caches. More importantly, obviously, these are not just being buried and being stumbled across by resistance forces like these, these are being hard fought. And these are the correct me if I'm wrong, these would be the weapons supplies that are left within these military bases that are being systematically liberated. Is that where these are coming from? Yes, it is,

Saw Htee Char 47:59

for example, and include Milan, which was command base in the kokang area. It wasn't just the weapons for local use, it was stocks to be distributed to other bases. Oh, that was a lot of weapons and a lot of different types of weapons.

Brad 48:18

Okay, okay. So sometimes we're getting lucky and we're intercepting a really large temporary stash. Yeah, making the whole thing okay.

Saw Htee Char 48:28

I wouldn't even say it's temporary. I would say they maintain that all the time. Also,

Brad 48:32

it wasn't just like a shipment that was enroute and overnighting in a base. Now is it like a warehouse they maintained Exactly. Oh, wow. Okay, and so not only then have the resistance forces gained these weapons, but they've also then deprived presumably multiple different bases around the area of the the ammunition resupply that they were waiting for?

Saw Htee Char 48:55

Yes. Yeah, ammunition also food. Other kinds of supplies? Yeah, since these bases are encircled now, they they don't have supplies coming unless the junta could drop the supplies by helicopter. But that also has its own risks, like missing the target and dropping the supplies to the enemy.

Brad 49:23

So let's talk about this encirclement because I mean, we all have this concept of, of sieges, right where you, you go up to the enemy castle walls and you digging trenches around the castle and you just, you encircle them, and you take potshots at them periodically. Presumably, that's not actually what's going on here. We haven't actually walked up to the outer perimeter of the base and started digging our own trenches and all that sort of stuff. What what does this encirclement actually look like? Actually,

Saw Htee Char 49:53

I think that's what it is. Really, at least in Kofu lay were you I have the best access. The Korean soldiers will stationed themselves around the camp, especially if there's a road and keep anybody from entering or leaving until the troops inside get desperate.

Brad 50:18

Wow. So even at the time traditional siege,

Saw Htee Char 50:21

and yeah, during the sieges, they're not just waiting. They're also dropping drone bombs on them every day. And snipers taking shots at them just making continued existence in these camps, untenable

Brad 50:37

that how far just curious like in meters? How far would the resistance forces be from the base perimeter during this encirclement?

Saw Htee Char 50:47

Um, yeah, it kind of depends on the terrain, but

Brad 50:54

you know, it's enough to yell over the barrier and speak to the people on the other side. No, okay.

Saw Htee Char 50:59

If like rifles have a, an effective range of like 100 meters, then you'd have to be at least that far. But mortars can go up to several kilometers, depending on what caliber they're using. So it wouldn't be like, it wouldn't always be an infix and trench location around the camp. They have to keep moving in order to avoid the mortar fire.

Brad 51:28

Okay, so it is a bit more fluid than the sort of medieval concept of of entrenched positions. They're just constantly on the move and trying to cut off any lines of resupply or escape.

Saw Htee Char 51:40

Yeah, they're always there. But they're there, pinpoint positions are always changing for six years,

Brad 51:47

like a guerrilla siege. Yeah. Interesting. Interesting. So let's talk about the drum because you brought up the drones. And this is something that I've been following for a while now, you know, drones, as in Predator drones, the actual military versions of drones were somewhat familiar with, we understand that they're incredibly advanced, incredibly powerful. But with the resistance forces, I remember when they first started, you know, raising money for things like your project, sky walk, and just trying to get a whole bunch of quadcopter drones off Amazon, and trying to jerry rigged them into into military applications, which is something that we've seen in other resistance operations in the 21st century. So how much can you tell us about the drones? Because there's such a fascinating sub field of conflict? It's, it's, it's almost like the resistance developing its own aerial doctrine. How much of an impact have they actually had? And how long has it taken for them to get there?

Saw Htee Char 52:48

Well, they've had enough of an impact that a dictator I mean, no one complains about them. And soldiers who have who have either defect or have been been captured, speak of the terror of living in a camp under and a drone bombing is explosions can just occur without warning, anytime, anywhere inside the camp. So you can't go somewhere to hide from them.

Brad 53:19

So what are we literally just attaching an explosive device to the bottom of a drone, flying the drone over a target and releasing the device.

Saw Htee Char 53:27

That's usually it, although you've seen an evolution, like before, they are using these cheaper small drones that would carry one mom at a time, they get over their target. And they they strive to try to stay at a rifle range by being very high up, which meant accuracy was marginal. So they would have to get very lucky in order to cause damage. But by doing it enough, they created enough risk and damage for the troops that it was definitely a worry. And if you look at aerial pictures of some of these junta camps, they just look completely battered as to splinters by drone bombs, like all the roofs have holes in them. And things are broken. The the mortar pits have been targeted. So the drones have been effective, and it's you know, it's the resistance version of an Air Force.

Brad 54:30

And now we because I heard that there were plans to use these drones to take measures against the the hunters aerial capability because aircraft whether it's jets or helicopters are mechanically very vulnerable things they have to be very light and they have to be very good condition in order to fly safely, and their most vulnerable of course when they're on the ground. So I have heard plans to drop these onto helicopters, drop them onto onto aircraft and turn had to render them useless. Has that been happening? Or have the military just pulled their aircraft further away from resistance frontlines?

Saw Htee Char 55:07

Well, the junta uses the most powerful kinds of jammers at their air bases for that reason. So the air bases are not very vulnerable. So well, the aircraft are on the ground, you know, so far, they've only been destroyed by these 107 millimeter rockets that you know, are fire from the ground. And those can take out an airplane hangar or aircraft themselves or fuel depots. But I wanted to say that, within the resistance forces, there are battalions that are specifically dedicated to drone warfare. And they have names like federal wings, Angry Birds. Can't remember some of the others. That's what they do. They, they either manufacture or they retrofit large drones, quad copters are hexa copters, that can carry like 10 kilogram bombs. Or sometimes they carry just a dozen grenades. And they'll they'll just, you know, drop a lot of grenades all at once in the same place. And, you know, accuracy is not as much of an issue if you're doing that. Also, federal wings when it's been working with a Korean Army, then things like pair a small spy drone, with a large bombing drone in order to get the range. Because the one that's the spy drone, that that's that's looking, it's providing the visual, it doesn't have to be above the target. So it can be lowered down and guides the larger drone to drop the bombs. And then they they drop a set of two bombs. First one penetrates the roof, the second one goes through the hole and blows up what's inside, you know, within a second of each other. And so by doing that, they've been able to cause serious casualties. Because

Brad 57:27

you say 1010 kilograms, like, what I was imagining was dropping, like, because one does not presume that a drone is designed to carry a payload. So I presume that they would be doing things like dropping a single grenade now for reference, a single, like, m 67. Grenade weighs 400 grams. So you're telling me that these drones that that the resistance are using are capable of dropping the equivalent of what's that like 2425 grenades in a single payload?

Saw Htee Char 58:01

Yes. And what they're using are these very large hexacopter ZZ that are designed for agriculture. They're designed to carry a load of pesticides or whatever, and then go sprayed over a field.

Brad 58:16

Ah, okay, so we're not talking about the $200 quadcopter drone that you would use for taking aerial photographs of of a picnic. We're talking about something industrial? Yeah,

Saw Htee Char 58:26

like I've seen these agricultural copters or drones for sale in Thailand for the equivalent of $1,000. US Wow.

Brad 58:37

Okay, so that's a totally different game. Yeah.

Saw Htee Char 58:41

So they're doing is reprogramming their frequency, the control frequencies, because most of them the drones that are sold commercially, are controlled by a within a limited frequency range. And so what the drone specialists are doing is reprogramming reprogramming them to run on different wave frequencies. So that means the jammers which are oriented towards the most common frequencies don't work against these.

Brad 59:21

Because that makes a lot of sense to you. I doubt you would have seen this as well, a while ago, some of the listeners may have read this article, that guest article that was published on on our platform from a soldier who defected who was actually a jammer operator. And the story he wrote was one time he just wanted to have one day of peace and quiet so he just conveniently neglected to turn the jammer off so that he wouldn't have to deal with, you know, the reports coming in and people yelling all the time. He just wanted to have a quiet day but What he was saying was that the the generals and higher officers was so paranoid about these assassination attempts and things like drones, that they would have the jammers turned on, whenever they went to the toilet, because they they wanted that protection. And then you would turn the jammers off when they came back from the toilet, and you would get the backlog of messages that had come in and, and submit them. So this is clearly something that they're quite heavily reliant on, and they have heavy faith in. And as you say, those radio frequencies, those are, those are defined by international standards so that the radio frequency does not interfere with emergency channel frequencies, military frequencies, and so on. Right. So that's, that's so is it possible, then there are a lot of these jammers that the military are using and put a lot of faith into that even the officer corps put a lot of faith into our being essentially rendered? ineffective? Yeah.

Saw Htee Char 1:00:58

Now, you can also use broadband. Jammers that will, you know, guard against most frequencies, those are bigger, more expensive. And another thing I wanted to talk about was the the evolution of the drone, where warfare from just copters, hovering drones to fixed wing drones, which look like small airplanes, and those that can program with longer wave lengths. So what I understand is, that means you can fly them further. So instead of like a kilometer radius, you could send a 10 kilometers. And you can use them as kamikaze drones, Wamsley. The current attacked the, the junta se military command and Mowlem Yang with a couple of those, during a ceremony where top officers were present. They flew a couple of kamikaze drone bombs into the ceremony. So it's been evolving, and recently, maybe a couple of months ago that the national unity government purchased and distributed 400 drones to resistance forces. So, yeah, drone, drones have become a major factor in the war. And again, it's it's great. It's a great guerrilla tactic, because you can attack from a safe distance, and be basic, basically unseen. And it doesn't matter how strong the enemy is.

Brad 1:02:51

I mean, it is. It's something that we're seeing, because we're watching it play out as well in Ukraine. And you've got the Shaheed suicide drones that the Iranians are selling. But what's fascinating is, is the way that drones are becoming cheaper, like you look at a Predator drone in the USA, they go for like, I don't know, think about $16 million apiece, the Russian knockoff XO, the Chinese knockoff goes for about 4 million. But in Australia, the company called sai PAC has developed a cardboard drone that comes in a flat pack is very difficult to detect on radar can fly in the rain, deliver a payload and return and is, you know, it costs in the in the range of 1000s of dollars, not in the range of millions of dollars. Right. So innovation like cost saving innovations that put these things within the scope of something like the Burmese resistance have exploded recently. The question then is, besides trying to source these from external third party sellers, who may be limited by, you know, various laws and any international restrictions, is the Burmese resistance in a position to be able to manufacture drones?

Saw Htee Char 1:04:07

Oh, they've been doing that. Oh, yeah. So there's there was a great article just this week in Nikkei Asia called in pictures how Myanmar's resistance fights with drones. And it it highlights a drone manufacturing unit in a cave in Karachi state. So they build the drones. They do some 3d 3d printing of some of the parts. They make the batteries. They do the programming, and these drones look like they're made out of like plastic cardboard material is extremely light and cheap. So the only parts that cost money would be the batteries and the motor and the bomb.

Brad 1:04:57

And so they've developed an entire man refactoring industry in the last three years,

Saw Htee Char 1:05:02

yes. And that's just a testament to the innovation of this revolution. Like, all these young people involved. They have ideas, they have creativity. They've they've done incredible things with, with very little, it's just amazing. I find their story so inspiring.

Brad 1:05:22

I mean, it's your I mean, you're right, this is absolutely amazing, like the the amount of progress that has been made in such a short span of time. And against all odds, like, especially as far as the PDF are concerned, again, these are people who had no military experience. Weapon ownership in Myanmar, is quite low. This is this is not the despite having a large military and a military dictatorship. This was never a heavily armed heavily militarized country as far as the civilian population was concerned. And within less than three years, they've gone and become battle hardened to become competent and have innovated and have established, you know, entire into this is high tech, I mean, making a drone making something that can fly, and can communicate, and can deliver a payload. This is high tech stuff. So that's, it's almost unbelievable how far this this development has come in such a short span.

Saw Htee Char 1:06:25

Yeah. And when you watch videos of locally manufactured rockets being fired in Sagaing region, that's also amazing. These are very effective projectiles that they've had to learn how to make, you know, starting from scratch.

Brad 1:06:47

I saw the early I saw the prototypes of those. And, and they were very young. Yeah, it was like it flew. It just didn't go very straight. Right. So again, like you look at a military, like an actual, official military, and the contracting companies, if you go to them, and you say, hey, I need you to develop, for me, a rocket launcher from scratch. I mean, that's going to take a development cycle of five years on the low end, and millions of dollars invested. And you're talking about people that you snatched up from institutions like MIT, and and who have like, oh, you need like a new computer to program. Okay, here we go have one. And yet people in the jungle with bombardments as a constant threat, in three years have been able to achieve what you would be paying millions of dollars to a military contractor to do in, you know, twice as much time, if not more. It's I don't know, it's just so difficult to wrap your head around how quickly and how effectively it is possible. For these resistance groups to

Saw Htee Char 1:07:55

work. Have you heard about the Mitel? Cannons?

Brad 1:07:57

No. Oh, to knock out the towers? Well, that

Saw Htee Char 1:08:01

but they're called my tail cans because well, you know, my tell is the the junta owned mobile phone network. And, and so the towers were targeted by resistance forces from the beginning. And so then they started taking those towers, which are made of these, they're made of metal tubing, they take the tubes and turn them into artillery pieces. So yeah, they, they've got the diameter of the tube, they make rounds to fit that diameter, and they turn those against the junta

Brad 1:08:42

that is good God. It just reminds me like back back behind the Iron Curtain. The the diameter of a cigarette used to be 7.62 millimeters, because the cigarette factory was designed such that in the event of warfare, we could start using some of this machinery to produce ammunition. So, you know, the the impact of of weaponry was visible in everyday life, everything was designed to be convertible in the event of war. And here we just have this case of here's a thing that was not designed with any military application in mind. But it has now become a military standard because it's there and it's plentiful. And it works. Yes. I remember actually the earlier on like late 2021, early 2022. The attacks on the Mitel towers were so widespread, the military started cutting down bamboo and fashioning spikes, and just loading spikes all around these towers in the hopes that they could prevent people from getting close enough to them to damage them and you know, burn them and blow them up and things like that. Of course it never worked, but

Saw Htee Char 1:09:57

it seemed put landmines around the terrorists. Well and ended up blowing up a lot of their technicians.

Brad 1:10:02

Well, yeah. landmines. Yeah, that's a whole other thing. The military's over reliance on landmines, I don't know. Every time you put a landmine in the ground, you have to think forward to the fact that that landmine is going to be there when the conflict has already ended.

Saw Htee Char 1:10:21

Unless you plan to take it out, unless you have a plan to take it out.

Brad 1:10:25

And I don't think the Burmese military have ever had a plan to take out a landmine. No,

Saw Htee Char 1:10:29

in fact, they they put them in people's homes, to maim and kill civilians. That's what they do. Now, the ethnic armies use landmines a lot too, because it's a kind of an equalizer technology is something small and cheap that you can use to protect yourself against a much larger force. But the Qur'an keep track of where they've buried them. And for example, if if you need to go that way, or if somebody needs to move through there they go and dig them out again.

Brad 1:11:05

Yeah. And that's, you know, landmines themselves are very controversial. And I think very appropriately controversial, because of the huge civilian toll. But if you're going to use them, at least have a plan for how to how to make the area safe. Whereas as you say, the Dumbledore seems to be more in this booby trap mentality of, you know, let's, let's try to take out as many people as we can, regardless of whether or not they're legitimate military targets, right? Yeah. It's a very, very depressing, very depressing thing. But on on the topic of depressing the Dumbledore. Let's, let's look at the conditions. Because we were discussing this in the pre interview, and I think it's, it's a very important point. What are the conditions like for the soldiers, I mean, the soldiers have never been treated particularly well. But then again, there were a lot of benefits that you used to get, if you're in the military, you, you know, you have access to education for yourself and for your family, you have access to specialized health care for yourself and for your family. There were a lot of perks, and for a lot of people it was it was a way out of poverty trap. What is life actually looking like for some of those soldiers today? Ah,

Saw Htee Char 1:12:17

well, another perk that you didn't mention was every soldier was a shareholder in these these Chroma crony business interests, which yielded dividends. So that was a form of income for, for military families. But since the boycotts and since a war, those companies are no longer profitable, so they don't get the financial benefits anymore. And in fact, you know, they don't all receive their pay regularly anymore, or sometimes over receive them, you know, in their accounts, but you can't withdraw cash from the bank, because of cash shortages. So there's that also just life in camps. I think I was describing before, where they're under a constant rain of drone bombs, with snipers ready to shoot at them. Anytime they stick up their head, they go to the bathroom or to go to get water go bathe. And they can't maintain equipment because like, the current snipers shoot at the water tank, so they can't keep water on hand. It's it's a miserable existence, like having to keep your head below the top of the trench every day, all day. That's just no way to live. And, you know, there's the traditional problems like the abuse by officers, the disrespect, especially for minority soldiers. It's just a harsh existence. And in some, in some cases, I think that explains the the psychology of these sadistic soldiers who perpetrate these horrendous acts on civilians. They've been treated so badly themselves. It's easy for them to mistreat other people.

Brad 1:14:20

Yeah, that desensitization. Yeah. But it's, I mean, it's still has to be noted when you when you look at the reports that are coming out about the crimes that they commit. And, you know, I've had to I've had to process some of those reports myself and they are, they are despicable like we are we are not only talking about war crimes, here we are talking about particularly heinous and despicable crimes of use are no abuse. There is no forgiveness for some of the things that these people have done.

Saw Htee Char 1:14:55

Right, burning people alive, is one of the most horrible things that they do. Yeah, you know, and that's massive fire.

Brad 1:15:07

I mean, it's just the indiscriminate, real. I mean, this is before we start talking about the sexual assaults and before we start talking about just effectively starving entire populations because they can, right. It's It's horrific stuff. And so you know that that has to balance it out. But nevertheless, the conditions in the camps, as you're saying that they're absolutely terrible is this is this rendering those soldiers less capable of fighting?

Saw Htee Char 1:15:38

I don't know about that. What I would say is, it makes some of them more likely to try to escape when they can. And I've met some soldiers who are in Korean custody. They supposedly surrendered during a battle. But actually what they were doing was they were taking that opportunity of the chaos of a battle in order to escape. Escape most of the time, because their own centuries could shoot them.

Brad 1:16:16

Yes.

Saw Htee Char 1:16:19

But they pulled it off.

Brad 1:16:21

So let's look at that. I'm wondering about that. So you're, you're sitting in a camp, there's a I assume there's a wall, a physical wall around the camp and, and one or two sort of gates. And you've got the enemy, quote, unquote, the resistance forces are moving around that camp, you don't know exactly where they are. But you know, that they're out there. You're a soldier inside the camp, and you're thinking, I want to get out of here. I want to grab my stuff. I want to grab my family. And I just want to be somewhere else. What are your options?

Saw Htee Char 1:16:53

Well, you mentioned family. We know that the families are treated like hostages, they're kept on their, their rear bases without being able to leave. So that discourages some defections. But I met some who just finally went ahead and did it anyway. So if they want to escape, you know, they're in danger of stepping on their own landmines. If they just flee their camp, they're in danger of getting picked off by the resistance snipers. And they've been told all kinds of horrible stories about you know, opposition forces, doing sadistic things to soldiers who crossover which is just It's nonsense, it's propaganda. But it's not so hard for them to believe because it's what they do to people. So that's what they're up against. And you know, they have the like I said, they're centuries guarding against the approach of enemy Jews but also guarding against flight by their own soldiers. So it may very complicated but the resistance forces specially the Korean Army, and I think it could Shan as well, I have gone to great lengths to make a show of treating the defectors very well. And even a surrendering soldiers. So there is a video that I used in my, my latest bulletin where it was somewhere in and clearly to District of Columbia lay something like 30 soldiers were surrendering. And they were being told by the Qur'an you can come out now you're safe, we are not going to kill you. We're going to take your arms, then we're going to feed you and get you medical carriers. We know you have some wounded. And also, a tactic of the opposition is to pay cash bonuses to those who defect. Not so much to those who surrender, but most could decide to defect with their weapons. You know, they'll get, you know, up to three or 4 million chats sometimes.

Brad 1:19:22

So what is the difference between surrender and defect?

Saw Htee Char 1:19:25

Well, I gave an example where it's the same thing but defecting is where you run to the other side. And you make yourself known. Okay, so

Brad 1:19:38

how do you do that, by the way without getting shot by the snipers.

Saw Htee Char 1:19:41

The best way is to contact the other side ahead of time. Oh, really? And so that's what these guys had done that I met. Like during the battle somehow they radio to the Korean over there. There are 17 of us coming over. Don't shoot us. Wow. Yeah, so that's the best way make contact with the opposition and like they ethnic armies and the national unity government actually have a contact lines for soldiers who want to defect.

Brad 1:20:17

Wow. Because that's the other thing. How do you make this known? Like, I know that, you know, there were a lot of cartoons and memes about this in 2021 of soldiers secretly listening to N ug radio, you know, in their camps and trying to hide from officers who were trying to shut down that that flow of information, but you know, it's a radio, if you tune into the station, you can still get that information. Yeah. So that's what I what I'm wondering is like, how, how would they have known a, how to contact the rebels like what frequency they're using? But be is this not a massive risk? Like, if you're trying to contact the enemy over radio? Is there no risk that the other people on your side are going to pick up on that transmission and shoot you in the back?

Saw Htee Char 1:21:03

Yeah, it definitely is a risk. And it goes to show how desperate they get sometimes that they're willing to take these risks. Or if they know that, you know, if they crossed, like some of them have to swim a river, they know some of them will drown. But it's it's worth it anyway.

Brad 1:21:25

Good. It reminds me like back in back in World War Two, the Soviet Union under Stalin for a short period of time, they implemented this very famous very controversial order number two to seven, the Not one step back order, where anyone who was who was even caught retreating, was supposed to get shot by by a rear guard. But the end result of that was just mass demoralization of their own people. It wasn't, you know, it wasn't actually helping anyone to feel motivated. It's that typical. The beatings will continue until morale improves sort of thing. So with the with the Myanmar military, would we say that that's the same effect, like their desperation to to hunt down and go off to anyone that they suspect of wanting to defect or thinking about defecting or deserting or escaping? Is that actually helping to keep people in units? Or is it just making people even more likely to say, Hey, I gotta get out of here.

Saw Htee Char 1:22:26

That's something that I don't have direct information about. So I wouldn't be speculating if I said anything. Just the the fact that the soldiers are so miserable, it works in the favor of the opposition. And actually, I don't think low morale is a concept understood by the junta Officer Corps. I think in their mentality if being very tough, hasn't worked, that you need to be tougher.

Brad 1:23:06

So we see that right. We've been seeing that since the beginning of the coup, the language of the junta has been incredibly disparaging and dismissive and dehumanizing. And, and they, they make all these comparisons to, you know, unruly livestock and things like that, when they when they talking about the people protesting against military rule. But it boggles the mind like surely, surely after three years, somebody would have understood that. If, if the beatings do not work. Additional beatings will not magically start working, like how do they seem to consistently double down on a strategy that has also consistently failed for them?

Saw Htee Char 1:23:57

Yeah, that is mind boggling. Why don't they learn from their endless stream of mistakes, but they don't. They, they could just consider that they, you know, if force hasn't worked you the solution is more force.

Brad 1:24:16

I mean, it almost feels like we should be grateful for this. Because the military's inability to learn from its mistakes and to understand that, that the strategies that weren't working in the first place are still not working, is going to help the revolution to succeed because it means that the military is not effective at doing anything, but it's just it's difficult to get into that mindset to try and understand what the military is really thinking that leads us to start wondering, well, is the military actually thinking something completely different? Do they have some bigger, broader strategy, some grand plan that we're not seeing because their behavior doesn't make sense from the perspective of a rational actor. It just doesn't make make sense? Do you think that there is something hidden from view? Do you think the military is sort of doing or planning something that would make all of their their actions retrospectively logical? Or is this it, they just, they just have no clue. And they're desperately doing the same thing again and again and again and again and failing?

Saw Htee Char 1:25:19

I think it's the latter. I think they start, excuse me. They start from an assumption that power is the exclusive right of the military. Nobody else has any right to demand any kind of self determination. And so they crack down on that very hard. But also, it's what Sean turnout, you know, I was talking to chief economic adviser who's from Australia, Sean Parnell, was imprisoned for nearly two years after the coup. And he says this is a regime whose wanton cruelty is, is surpassed only by his bovine stupidity. They just can't learn. Can't do it.

Brad 1:26:14

It is just, I don't know, it's still always difficult to believe these things. As humans, we always want to assume that other people, whether it's historical figures, or whether it's, you know, opposition politicians, we always want to assume that these people are fundamentally informed, are fundamentally reasonable and logical, and are ultimately attempting to do things that are going to bring about good outcomes for them. We always think that everyone else is is, you know, they are self interested. But they are informed and they are logical, and they are rational. And time and time and time again, it turns out no, no, these people at all. They're not rational, they're not informed. And they're making bad decisions, because they're just bad at making decisions. Yeah, it's difficult to get used to, I suppose. But we should be grateful for it. So turning to the more sort of immediate meat of the matter, because I'm conscious of your time. That the situation of the military right now, okay, we've discussed like, what's going on across the country? What does it look like on the ground? macroscale? What, what are we looking at with the military? Are they able to do anything? Are they able to push forward anywhere? Are they able to replenish the troops that they're losing? Are they able to replenish the material that they're losing? Do they have any strategy, the

Saw Htee Char 1:27:45

pessimists will cite the air power, and the continued availability of munitions to continue with their belief that the the old Burma army cannot be defeated militarily, but airpower never was never led to control on the ground. And, you know, the Americans learned that in Vietnam. airpower does not equal control, air power equals destruction, and disruption but not control. What you need for control is troops on the ground. And the junta is running out of those. And so we're seeing on the front lines these old recalled veterans you know, snatched from their civilian lives, or retirement even and sent to the front lines. We're seeing reserve forces there's there's not really any reserves anymore, but we're seeing support function battalions, the the engineers, the human resources, people the Ordnance quartermasters non combat type people sent to the frontlines, people pulled out of like the military academy, out of medical school out of the Air Force administration to sin into trenches in the battle zones. And these people are just not effective fighters. Prisoners are being sent there. So I think that's why we're seeing the rapid loss of junta territorial control.

Brad 1:29:45

And to clarify, do you say prisoners, yes. As in people from jails, yeah, military

Saw Htee Char 1:29:51

prisons. So these are men who are previously considered unfit to serve because They were they, they were deserters, they were guilty of insubordination, or they committed crimes Well, in the military. So they were in prison, and now they're their soldiers. And right away, some of them ran off, as soon as they got to the front lines.

Brad 1:30:19

So let me the Russians did the same thing. Barely like a year ago, surely, again, they could have just looked at that and gone, oh, the prisoners are not motivated fighters.

Saw Htee Char 1:30:32

But what they're looking at is the fact that they don't have anybody. And they've got all these gaps opening up that they need to plug. So they're just grabbing WARM BODIES anywhere. You know, they're kidnapping youth off the street, and giving them you know, this cursory two week training that doesn't really prepare them for anything, putting rifles in their hands, sending them to the trenches. And they're supposed to fight, they're supposed to hold off these ethnic armies and people's defense forces that are now better armed than ever, and that have two years of battle experience, and they have extremely high morale. Now, these non soldiers sent by the junta really don't stand a chance against them. And I remember a remark by one of the Quranic commanders that it doesn't really seem like a fair fight, to be shooting down these people on the other side, who don't want to be there who are not soldiers. It's just that it's hard to imagine the hotel holding out for very much longer in this condition.

Brad 1:31:46

So how, how long do you think this this conflict is going to continue? How long before the junta have to either admit defeat, or stamp their feet and hold out somewhere in Naypyidaw, but functionally become irrelevant.

Saw Htee Char 1:32:03

I can easily envision the latter scenario, oh, six months from now, where they've had to pull back from all the the ethnic peripheral areas. And so going and Maguey region, where control of my Yangon and Mandalay is contested, and where the military just has maybe an airbase surrounded by trenches and bunkers. I really don't think it'll be controlling much of the country six months from now.

Brad 1:32:46

So that's okay, so just just to clarify some minor point, but I'm still curious to get your insight on this. You don't think that the military are likely to admit defeat, even after they functionally lost control of the country, they would not actually stand down and say that we lost and sue for peace.

Saw Htee Char 1:33:08

This seems to be a group of generals who can't learn from anything. So it's hard to imagine them admitting defeat. What they would do is what they've been doing now like proposing treaties with certain of the combatants in order to liberate some of their troops to send to others. And, of course, then what they do is, you know, having subdued the opposition somewhere, they'll take those troops and turn back on the people they they signed a truce with. That's what they do. They divide and conquer, and they make these false treaties.

Brad 1:33:52

And that's the national ceasefire agreement. That's yeah, that's been the policy for the last like, what 20 years?

Saw Htee Char 1:33:58

Well, the National ceasefire agreement was 2015. But before that, they did sign treaties like in 2012, with the Qur'an and before that with the mall. But people have gotten wise to these ruses because the junta never does share power, willingly. And so people just committed to its eradication. So I think they the intelligent members of the military already left there in CDM. Now with civil disobedience movement, and there may be some others who see the writing on the wall and escaped to China or somewhere. I really don't know who's going to stick around long enough to be jailed for war crimes by the national unity government.

Brad 1:34:51

Yeah, so you're you're predicting it'd be most likely that they would try to escape basically.

Saw Htee Char 1:34:56

I think some of them might. I think others are them right. We are stupid enough to stick around to the end. Do you?

Brad 1:35:03

Do you envisage, for example, a palace coup, something of the a new wave of generals, trying to sort of cleanse the reputation of the Dumbledore and make themselves appeal to the people by taking out the the current leadership, and then trying to pretend like none of that was just a couple of rogue generals, but they're dead now. And we killed them for you. And, you know, we deserve to reclaim the previous prestige and privileged position of the thumb of though,

Saw Htee Char 1:35:31

I think that would be just another another ruse that wouldn't work. Because anybody who's high enough up to stage such a coup, within a coup, has bathed themselves in evil enough that they couldn't be trusted as negotiating partners, either. So I just don't think that would work.

Brad 1:36:01

So long story short, the future of the tomato within the Myanmar context doesn't exist. Long term.

Saw Htee Char 1:36:10

Right.

Brad 1:36:13

Okay, that's a that's a pretty bold statement. To be making it it's definitely in line with what a lot of the analysts that we speak to are saying, but it's, it's a very, very confident statement to be making, which a few years ago, people were very, very hesitant to, to align themselves with. So has has the, what brought about the shift? Was it Operation 1027? Or were you always of the opinion that the Dumbledore cannot win this coup?

Saw Htee Char 1:36:44

From the beginning, that's what I believe that, wow, you know, with 55 million people against you. Your even a very large army is not big enough to control a rebellious country. And definitely, and I always thought, you know, the opposition would grow, they're going to shrink until it tipped the way it's tipping now.

Brad 1:37:15

I mean, every time we have someone, come on, like you and basically say, in no uncertain terms, that the tomatoes future in the country is non existent. I just have to be grateful, because after the last almost three years of this, and the consistent war crimes and the deaths and the destructions, and the arson and just the litany of abuses, finally, seeing the light at the end of the tunnel is just such a such a refreshing and and relieving feeling. That, you know, it really helps, you know, helps you to sort of breathe again, and feel positive again. So I really appreciate that you that you come on and that you've shared that insight, and I very much hope that we can contribute significantly to helping spread this message to the English Language Media and to English language policy. As you point out, that's been quite effective lately.

Saw Htee Char 1:38:18

Well, I just consider this this story so inspiring. Because it's a civilian population rising up against military autocracy. And the the perseverance, especially of the young generation, the creativity, even the older generation and the national unity government, the creativity they've shown in raising funds by, for example, having online lotteries or online auctions of junta property that they've actually sold off property that's currently occupied by the junta. But after the war, the the buyers will get it. And they've raised millions of dollars that way. They've they've issued bonds. They've started a bank and a cryptocurrency. So I just think this whole movement has been so inspiring. And you also have to acknowledge that the people in Myanmar have received very little support from outside. It's not like Ukraine, where other countries helped the victim to kind of level the the playing field militarily. You know, the the Americans have put in sanctions and the Brits and others. The sanctions have have helped by reducing the junta's access to foreign currency to fuel Those definitely have been a factor but from the beginning, that people in Myanmar appealed for heart assistance, like if not an airstrike to destroy the the military leadership, and then maybe weapons to help them fight the junta they received none of that the people in Myanmar have carried out this struggle entirely on their own. They've been left to themselves, and they've done it anyway. And that's even more incredible given that they've got some powerful countries against them, China, Russia, India, Thailand, those who have supplied weapons to the junta or diplomatic recognition, even United Asian United Nations agencies that have played into the hands of the junta by operating under, you know, according to memoranda of understanding, signed with the junta that only allow them to distribute aid where the junta says they can. And the junta weaponized is the aid for its own purposes. So the people in Myanmar have carried through the struggle on their own, against some very powerful foreign forces. And when they win, this victory will belong entirely to them. They will not owe anybody anything. And so I'm really looking forward to congratulate them. And I'd like to be there when it when it ends when the celebration comes, as I've been able to be there in some of the liberated areas, you know, by ethnic minorities. And I want to say before we finish that I am writing a book, it's already written actually, about the spring revolution that I want to put out in order to tell the story of this fight of a civilian population against military dictatorship. And the working title is called the mighty generation, the Myanmar youth who took on the task of overturning dictatorship where their predecessors had failed.

Host 1:42:57

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