Transcript: Episode #254: A Diplomatic Deadlock
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Host 0:18
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Host 1:52
For this episode of insight Myanmar, we're at Thammasat University here in Bangkok with my esteemed guest and I would like to invite you to introduce yourself and your background.
Kitti Prasirtsuk 2:02
Hi, my name is Kitty plus. So I'm a professor of international relations at the Faculty of Political Science from Osaka University, the area of my expertise on international relations in the Indo Pacific and also ASEAN issue on ASEAN, America Thai alliances, for example. Right, we need to reflect the past about what ASEAN has been doing with the Myanmar crisis since three years ago. I think the first thing we need to recap is the five high consensus five high consensus whereby ASEAN issue the five high consensus, right after the Myanmar crisis took place in three sigo that mean, to ask for peaceful resolution to ask for ceasefires thing like that for the five Pi consensus. And they also appointed the special envoy from Vinay you had Brunei was the the chair of the ASEAN summit up that year 2021 Brunei, NY was sent to Yun Khan to discuss with the militarily junta but thing did not get further, it just stagnating so to speak, but ASEAN with the leadership of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei and the Philippines push forward for five high concerns so they are more eager to deal with the Myanmar issue. Thailand, meanwhile, remain on the sidelines. Most of the time in the previous government. There's just thing probably too complicated, too complicated and we have to wait for the Myanmar site to ask for help to ask for Thailand to help negotiate or something like that. But we are not proactive. We just Mali capacity. But as yet as I said, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Brunei, they are more like take a leadership in Myanmar issue in having the five high consensus inviting me online to discuss it Indonesia at the SAC Cassia secretaria. Ali a few months after the coup d'etat so that how ASEAN has been dealing with Myanmar issue in the first year. In the second year, ASEAN was chaired by 2022, the second year of the crisis. Myanmar crisis who wouldn't send from Cambodia was the chair of the ASEAN summit that year and he also tried to talk with military junta tried to solve the issue by ASEAN. But he did not get much collaboration from from the literally junta. And at one point he he criticize. We have a strong word for military you wouldn't die as well. But that something like that. So the issue situation fighting has been going on. And then last year 2023 Thailand finally made the move, Thailand finally made a move by our Foreign Minister Nan parama. Deny, but his move came not at a good timing because he moved when he was interim government is the government we are waiting for the general election in the middle of last year. And in July, he managed to go to Myanmar and to meet with Aung San su chi, or sans for the first first ASEAN hiring officer that can meet with outside sushi after the coup d'etat. And after that, for me, they stayed on organize a meeting in Pattaya inviting military junta and other factions to come to discuss in Pattaya. But that was not well, we'll come by ASEAN, because he did not do that on the consultation with ASEAN, which he just did on the Thai government on his own. So I don't think ASEAN was happy about that Indonesia Malaysia was not happy about that. Plus it during interim government during interim government or he didn't have much authority during that time, but he decided to do that. I think why he decided to convene the meeting in Pattaya first because 36 years ago, Thailand organized the same meeting with the three factions of Cambodian Cambodia faction that involved in civil war. They hold the meeting in Pattaya in order to reconcile to make a compromise. Right. So Thailand was quite instrumental in that that meeting in Pattaya, so I think he would like to do that. Again, but that did not make a good progress in the Myanmar crisis. And plus, with prime minister, Foreign Minister Don Wolfe was not well received by ASEAN countries.
Host 7:46
Have there been factions in Thai politics or different leaders or parties that have have come out strongly on the other side in terms of describing the the role that Thailand should be playing to recognize the energy or support the democracy movement that perhaps has not been seen at a leadership level, but there have been this minority voice right among
Kitti Prasirtsuk 8:07
Academy, and among the opposition leaders, like in the move forward party Asier have the more advanced looking politician and the thing that we should support democracy more, at least we should involve, I mean, play some role in this conflict rather than staying in the sidelines, waiting for Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia to move first. But we did move but a little bit late and not in the right timing. And in fact, when prime prime minister Dawn convened a meeting in Pattaya, it also was criticized as if it to legitimize them literally couldn't die as well. I don't think the Thai government or even the previous one would like to support the military government in Myanmar. They just they just want to work with people in power and not affect our interests, particularly on energy or anti investment in Myanmar. I think that they just think about that not go as far as to support military government in Myanmar. So the reason why Thailand had been quite passive. In dealing with Myanmar issue, I think there are three reasons. First, on our economy interests, particularly on energy, which we rely a lot on gas from Myanmar, gas pipeline from Myanmar, and also our investment time investment in Myanmar and Thailand, just think that because the Myanmar military government, take control of the pipeline, and also rules and regulation in the central government. We should be friends with military government, and we should not intervene And secondly, on the militarily to military relation, because Prime Minister Prayut, the previous Prime Minister, he also came from coup d'etat. And even after that he was elected in the more likely democratic government. But yet, in military point of view, they still have want to keep good relation with Myanmar militarily. But in fact, that can be leverage. For Thailand as where we call we have good relations with the military, if we somehow did not do that leverage. We would like to be friends with people in power so that they can protect our economy interest in Myanmar.
Host 10:51
Right, so these are the reasons that you're attributing to the passivity that we're seeing in the Thai response. What kind of response would you like to see?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 11:02
Well, I think Thailand and ASEAN need to work together more closely. And deliberating what would be the good way to engage with Myanmar because now situation has changed. The opposition forces in Myanmar have been gaining ground in many ways. And militarily, government has been under the setback. So probably it's time to, to negotiate to help solve the problem for the people. And in fact, not only at asset level, we have another two layer of actors or player it is Myanmar issues, the major powers like China, India, even neighboring country like Bangladesh, the United States or even Japan, we also should discuss with all of them. In fact, we have been in the talk, but I think we need to work more closely on this. And we also have UN special envoy on Myanmar issue. I think Julie Goossens from Australia, that at the International Organization level, we need to, to work at the three level and how to engage with our other side or the fighting group in Myanmar and try to get the solution for them. Sure file.
Host 12:32
So you used an interesting word to negotiate with the different parties involved. And this has been a very hot topic in Myanmar, because there have been many in the democratic movement saying that what has the military possibly done in its history of rule to ever give a sense of of reasonable expectation that they are going to abide by whatever kind of negotiation happens you yourself mentioned the five point consensus and just that's made a laughingstock really of the whole region, and they've done so what from I know that from an audience point of view, there has been a desire to want to learn from some to want to see the Myanmar military in as as one of the as some solution to the future of Myanmar, while others have said if called out, especially within the Democratic Movement, that look, these guys have never shown that they have a shred of credibility and how they approach it. So what are your thoughts on how Thailand and ACN are seeing the military as a somewhat reasonable partner to negotiate with and to what extent are they? To what extent do you think that they should be included in military and some of those discussions?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 13:43
That is very complicated, but I think, to in reality, we cannot ignore the military junta, because they still hold some grip or power in the central area. And I think they are like a, let's say, we have three big faction in Myanmar, the military leader in UG and the minority groups, opposition forces, but they are very complicated. We know that but these three major groups need to somehow reconcile for the sake of the people maybe too idealistic, but unbearable, unbearable for the suffering of the people. Whether you are a man you are minority, you are from the N UG. So I just hope that this time for them to to talk to get set toe and to to divide the authority in the country or something like that. But that easy. Not quite that easy. But I think the city can't seem to to be in that directions diabolically cannot hold on the power like before. Yeah. Right.
Host 15:09
Do you think they recognize that?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 15:13
I think they, they still want to fight, they still want to fight. They want to fight back there were to get to give back. But you look at the military conscription means that there are conscription people at at at 18 years old. That mean more and more people will flee the country, to Thailand. And that that can be a big leap professions, for both me and mine. And for Thailand as well, Thailand probably cannot absolve all the people who are fleeing to Thailand. So we need to get something at this point, I think we need to leave we need to talk and try to find some some solutions. We need to do some ceasefire, thing like that? I think.
Host 16:04
So if you believe the military does have to be part of that negotiation table? What ideas do you have as to how that conversation can possibly take place? So that the military, whatever agreements and resolutions and discussions are led that there is accountability and transparency, and we don't see the same old story playing out that we've seen for generations here? Hmm.
Kitti Prasirtsuk 16:26
I think the role of country like China would be quite important, because China has influence over the military junta and some opposition for some minority groups, as well. I don't think it in any people interest to keep the fighting going on, right? And how we can stop that. How we can make a deal out of that. Of course, the military has not been credible, but they're still formidable forces in Myanmar, politics and how we engage with them. Or we had to end up and opposite forces to overthrow the military or over. But I don't see that happening. I don't think that can be possible.
Host 17:16
What do you see is how China's viewing this development? And where do they stand today? What do they want? We know they want stability. But what do you think they're willing to do to get it? And how would they like to see that stability play out? Hmm.
Kitti Prasirtsuk 17:31
They would like to take control, they would like to have influence over Myanmar for sure. So far, they have done that to the military, government. But after Aung San su chi came to power, the Myanmar government, diversify its ties with major powers, right. But after the coup d'etat is seen, went back to China again. But in complicated because of the illegal businesses along the border, so on then the military junta work with the illegal businesses and the Chinese government does not have is it happy about that. And they also support opposition forces to get rid of the illegal businesses from China or China seem to support both military junta and also opposition forces. Right in order to get rid of the illegal Chinese businesses. So but for the duty, I don't think China has much influence or work with them that much.
Host 18:41
Right. So you also talked about with this new conscription law, that there's going to be an absolute overwhelming wave of Burmese youth fleeing, legally or illegally, likely very illegally, at all costs, to avoid what amounts to certain death and being used as human shields. And you mentioned that Thailand can simply not absorb this influx of what we're looking at. So what does that mean that Thailand can't absorb it? What what what do you see as the near future for the mass of migrants coming in? And what and how that will start to affect this country?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 19:18
Well, we can expect a big wave of migrants coming. So if my gran can come to serve in some industry, like work as labor, that's fine, but I think it's gonna be over supply. And people who come to Thailand but no work, no shelter, or that can be a problem that you can imagine from other thing. And even accommodating in the refugee camp. It's quite costly. And a lot of work, a lot of work. Bibi should not let that situation happen too much, and then we cannot control or contain. So, Thailand we really affected by that. I just hope that the fighting factions in Myanmar can come to negotiate somehow. But that need influence of major powers. And ASEAN should be a facilitator, as well. But you know, that really idealistic, you know, the fighting faction, they just want to take advantage as much as possible. And now the opposition forces the molarity, group leader, they pressure the military junta to step down. Alright. And they they're not gonna do on that we literally not gonna do on that. So it's like a deadlock. Now,
Host 20:57
I have not heard any signs that they're also looking to negotiate with those forces, maybe especially at the top because they know that there's no that there's there's no safe harbor for them. Maybe there's some there's been talk of other people in the military having an internal coup in hopes of getting out of this mess. But
Kitti Prasirtsuk 21:15
it is not negotiating it seems that we have to wait for more people to be killed. There are millions that not that we do not want that to happen. I think what we are discussing now is trying to stop that from happening. But how can we do that is on negotiations but it difficult I understand fully that it difficult, but we need to to make efforts toward that. That directions, even though we may fail, Thailand ASEAN may fail. But at least we need to show the world that we we make a few attempts.
Host 21:56
Do you think they're making those efforts and attempts now? Are you seeing evidence of that taking place?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 22:00
Mr. Wooden sim, he has a video call with me online, you know that. And he asked to meet with Aung San su chi. But being online, I don't think he agree. Anything he agree he still as you said has a very stiff position on on the crisis and do not compromise do not compromise do not want to negotiate or anything. And last week, it was new that taxied Mr. taxing the former prime minister also met with a lot of minority group in Chiang Mai last month, and trying to be the mediator because he knows that he he has close to being online and medically junta as where he would like to establish himself as the mediator. But that seem not to come from Thai government's strategy. He like he acts on his own event followed ministry maybe not know about that.
Host 22:59
So what do you think of that?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 23:02
I think we need to synchronize I think information that is not bad information is not bad, but need to be under the synchronized strategies. were informed integrated strategies.
Host 23:14
Sure. So this is very non conventional. As far as the diplomacy goes, this kind of going out on your own what why do you think he did that? What do you what do you wait? Why did he put himself in that position?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 23:24
He at least in this man, you know, he very fast moving and sometime not careful thinking sometimes you want to move as fast as possible. I don't think he cares about the situation in Myanmar, he care about Thailand. And he would like to establish himself as the mediator in this case. In fact, in our academic community, we have been discussing information now who would be a good one to negotiate with Myanmar. We thought about Dr. Serene peace to one, but he passed away. We did not have that kind of caliber person in our type political community, but now Texas emerged as a self appointed. But this is an informational now it's not bad, but that needs to be done through the good consultation with first Thai Government and also with ASEAN with ASEAN, but now it's saying that Mr. Taxi Mr. Wouldn't say and he acted on his own Alright.
Host 24:26
Alright. So yeah. And how did the Thai government that he was not a part of anymore as he was representing themselves, how did they look at what he was what he self appointed himself to do?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 24:39
The new foreign minister. He just said he was not aware of that. And the taxi is a well connected person. You can talk with anybody thing like that. But that's not the case. That the case is more important than that. We need to move in a closer Patrick II for the country for ASEAN as well.
Host 25:03
What have you heard about how those meetings went and how they received him?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 25:08
Well, that minority group, in fact, they rely on Thailand in many ways. So if they have a chance to talk with senior people in Thailand, they would do, but it doesn't mean that they would agree with Mr. Taxi that testing can be mediator. In fact, Neal reported that Mr. Taxi also prepared a document for minority group leader to sigh to apply, and to authorize the taxi to be made. But they declined to sign. Yeah. And in fact, some some Meditech group leader they invited not the right person because it's so complicated, so many groups in the current growth and so on. So they move too fast. apparently
Host 25:51
Well, also he he confused the names of the Korean and nicotine organizations famously right. That's not a good look to have a self appointed representative mediator that is not connected to the current Thai government that is then mispronounced that not not just mispronouncing is misplacing one ethnic group with another This is really embarrassing.
Kitti Prasirtsuk 26:13
Yeah, right. Right. Again, he moves so fast. He's like a busy man.
Host 26:20
But to get things done as soon as possible, do you have any hopes for his involvement?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 26:24
I'm afraid not. Afraid, not, at least, unless we have a synchronized arrangement in the Thai government and with ASEAN. That needs to be done in good consultation with ASEAN, with Lao Lao is the chair countries. They also share a border with Myanmar, they also care about the issues. You need to work with that. Right. And also with major power, I think better power would be more decisive factors.
Host 26:52
You mentioned the humanitarian corridor. And I want to get into that, before getting your views on that. Can you just explain for our listeners who might never have heard of this, what the humanitarian corridor, what the rationale behind it is and how it's been operating?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 27:05
It more about the supply of foods medical supply, to lead the people who are suffering from the fight from the warfare. And that is done through the Red Cross. This Cross Society of Thailand and Myanmar, but things get complicated because in the border area is controlled by Korean group not by the central government, but the less cross Myanmar control by the military government. So I've been people perplexed. What who would we say that current people or we admire people in other areas. It is quite complicated. But but now it has been stopped. And because our former foreign minister resigned, Mr. Banbury resigned, and his advisor, Mr. C Hassan, who used to be Permanent Secretary of Foreign Affairs, he was instrumental in organizing the humanitarian corridor. He also had to resign with Foreign Minister ban pre sorting got some stagnant and now we got a new team in the foreign ministry, the new foreign minister, we need some time to to look at this issue again, it better we should reestablish humanitarian corridor again, it was effective last, anything like that
Host 28:37
for so then looking ahead to the reestablishment of another humanitarian corridor, do you think that should be approached differently than the official channel, quote, I should have air quotes between official the quote unquote, official channels, because the military is not as justifiably not seen as legitimate by many parties. And so they are, they are not seen as being a credible receiver and deliverer of aid and then it should be going through other networks, that poses a challenge for some because they that would be seen as legitimizing or accepting other other local leaders and groups in the country. And therein lies the problem. But what as as the the humanitarian corridor is revisited by this new administration, what do you think they might do? And what do you think they should do?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 29:27
And think they might work with NGO, NGO group probably more effective and dilemma to the people, the kindness of minority rather than working with less Cross Society, which pretty much connected to the military government?
Host 29:42
Do you think they will do that? Um,
Kitti Prasirtsuk 29:46
I hope they will. I hope they will, because they need a different approach,
Host 29:50
because the regime obviously would not like that.
Kitti Prasirtsuk 29:54
Right, right. Right, right. But working with NGOs seem to be the direct access to be All
Host 30:02
right. So one of the things I'm thinking as I talk to you, I spoke last year to former US ambassador Scott Marcio. And we spoke about his tenure in Myanmar and the way he looks at the the crisis today. And at the end of the conversation, I pointed out, I said, you know, you, you are a lifelong diplomat, and a key tenant of diplomacy is the art of communication negotiation discussion. Given how collapsed, we see the problem in the crisis in Myanmar, I asked him if he felt that any form of diplomacy or of conversation or dialogue with the military was still a viable action and his short summarize it, I encourage listeners to go back and hear his full answer. But to summarize it, he felt them probably not that they have shown themselves not as a credible partner. And as I spoke to him, I just it was this, this kind of heartbreaking disappointment at the end of the talk that you have a lifelong career diplomat who doesn't seem to believe in diplomacy in this instance. So this is how broken it is. The reason I'm bringing this anecdote up is that I am now speaking to a an expert in political science, anti Myanmar relations and a subject matter that you've studied for years. And I hear a similar tenor in your voice as we talk about this, that as informed as you are about the nature of political science. And as you've studied the region, some of the questions I've asked you, you seem to be at a loss as far as what could happen, what might happen, how effective that can be. And so just as speaking, just got Marcy out, and a career diplomat, who did not really see a way forward for diplomacy, I feel like I'm now speaking to a political science, political scientists, who is at a loss to see how the politics of all this will get sorted out, usually
Kitti Prasirtsuk 31:45
has the depression on this. But I think at least we should make an attempt our efforts in hell solving the issues, because the thing thing has changed. Three year pass them the government, what is not as strong as before. So is it more likely that they would like to negotiate more than two years ago, for example. And that would be needed. inference from China, I think we need to discuss with China how we, we cannot let this situation go on go on and on. Actually difficult because like in Ukraine and Russia, they have been fighting, how many years now? Three, three years already. They may not four years already. So it seemed that they want to fight until once I become defeated, and then then that negotiating, but that will incur the costs of casualties are people suffering? And we agree on that? I don't think we do. And we need to try when cetacean chain, we have another big try. Big attempt to help but if we fail, we understand that thing is complicated. We cannot help we cannot save the world. But at least we need to give it a try. I just think that Thailand ASEAN major power, should should discuss together and how to engage with Myanmar as a whole, but unless we have a hope we have not things to let people suffer with not good.
Host 33:37
So you see the way forward or the way forward that you would like to see would be a increased dialogue and negotiation with with as many regional partners as even and even partners outside the region that are coming in to bring all parties at the table and Myanmar together to try to foster a dialogue that that all of these complex parties with their backgrounds can somehow agree to and then and then adhere to afterwards.
Kitti Prasirtsuk 34:04
Right. Right. Right. At least we need some to have an analogy in Palestine, Israel. We need some ceasefire. ceasefire. Right. And I think the pleasure from China, to military comments are important, very important, that this will be a good message. So I just have a hope in China as a decisive factor, even more than you did a step even more than India.
Host 34:37
In this case. You have that hope, but do you think that's a likelihood? Do you see China stepping forward in that way?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 34:41
Hmm. I don't see any sign I don't see at least i but we need to convince we need to discuss we need to talk with China and get China on board. Get China on by on this.
Host 34:55
But then the other problem as you just mentioned, is that you also don't see a High leader capable of being a person, man or woman of the moment to be able to step up into what's needed. So that that is another problem with this.
Kitti Prasirtsuk 35:10
Right 15 seems to be demand but it's more is a little bit illegitimate at this point. And he still under these parole, parole he on parole. He's not free man, he led a free man. So he cannot play so much row. Right.
Host 35:33
Another question I'm having is, um, I've spoken with different people in the region about how what's happening in Myanmar is not just staying within the borders. This is most true of Thailand, where you have this long border where as you said, they just they simply can't absorb the the influx of migrants and refugees that will come as a result of conflict. But we've talked about that. And the area I want to ask you about is more the conceptual than the actual in terms of you have this this battle waging right now in Myanmar, between tyrannical corrupt tyrant forces and those forces that are I don't want to overstate it to romanticize it, but forces that are speaking of inclusion and federal democracy and and having human rights and these progressive values that we all hold, dear. And you're you're seeing this battle waged out in front of us. And if it obviously, if it continues into the turmoil, it is that destabilizes the whole region. But if there's one of the sides that can ultimately be able to prevail over the other what kind of signal or sign does that send to Thailand in the region?
Kitti Prasirtsuk 36:44
Hmm. Well, I think many people in Thailand would be heartened by the victory of minority forces, because they managed to win over the tyranny that dictatorial regime. But still, I think the majority of Thailand, people would concern about instability in their countries. It doesn't mean that we prefer stability at our cost. But somehow the opposition force, they also received support from some some major power, otherwise, they will not win win over the military. So it seems to be complicated. I don't think we have the seat now. Maybe the military cannot rule permanently. They have some weaknesses. They have some vulnerability, that that probably the sit down probably the signal. But oh, I think we are concerned about the situations and we think major power involvement is also important key for the system group to win over them militarily as well, otherwise, they do not have enough power and relations. It has been fascinated for Myanmar. Because now you see in Southeast Asia, a country like Vietnam, Cambodia after a long civil war, they take off quite well. They become industrialized, they develop well, but in Myanmar, we still stuck in the like a Cold War era, or pre even pre Cold War era of ethnic fighting. And we cannot foresee the end game yet. That is very unfortunate. We just hope that myself I just can be federal federal list, federalism in there and how they distribute to chair authority share that interest, will that probably the more they are that that Myanmar should go and I hope our side would be accepting that they need to really consider it that way rather than we literally want to dominate the whole country, thing like that. And we just pray for Myanmar are the best. And we hope, I hope, Thailand, ASEAN countries and major power thereby we'll come together to sort out some solutions for them.
Host 39:57
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