Transcript: Episode #50: Operation Defection
Following is the full transcript for the interview with Ven, which appeared on May 5, 2021. This transcript was made possible by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and has not been checked by any human reader. Because of this, many of the words may not be accurate in this text. This is particularly true of speakers who have a stronger accent, as AI will make more mistakes interpreting and transcribing their words. For that reason, this transcript should not be cited in any article or document without checking the timestamp to confirm the exact words that the guest has really said.
Host 00:47
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02:07
a good day.
Host 02:36
It's a pleasure to welcome ven here to Insight Myanmar podcast. He has some important things to talk about. So we're just going to get right into what it is he wants to share. And tell us about so then the platform is yours over to you start us off on your topic.
Ven 02:54
I In short, what I want to say is for us to achieve what we want to achieve. A key component of it is creating divisions defections within the Burmese military. Because the movie's military, even if it has even its capabilities, warfare capabilities are not as strong. It's still it's still a Goliath in terms of both its number and its naval and air support. And of course, having said this, I'm already assume assuming that conflict is going to be inevitable. And I do think that conflict is going to be inevitable. It's just a matter of whether the conflict that comes will be a protracted conflict. Or one way we can see some quick victory soon. And in order to achieve that quick victory. We need to actively promote and have a strategy for creating divisions to factions and mutinies within the Burmese military.
Host 04:00
Right. So that gets right at the heart of what it is you want to talk about. And we should mention that we're recording this on April 12. There, it's going to be released sometime later up to this time, there has been very little violence. It's been mostly non violent. when it's released, we're not quite sure what the state of the country is going to be it could be violent by then. But then you are and you have been quite focused on this issue of defection and mutiny as a way to cause dissent within. Can you tell us a little bit about why you think this strategy is so important.
Ven 04:44
Right. So, for one, I do disagree with any characterization that that tomorrow is a monolithic organization that is very ideologically strong. I do not think that is the case. In fact, I think there are many internal rivalries that exists even within the top brass. And I may have mentioned to you before, once we talked that when the coup happened, the top there were three, two generals and the police chief that were fired, because they were known to be closely cooperating with doors and switching before the coup. So there are many internal rivalries, these generals the way about them are not known. And history of Demerol from the early days of Norway danshui, we have seen many attempts of assassination, and removals from power. So the top brass is always vying for more power for themselves and their close group of people. And even within the rank and file, what is different, very, very different now is that, let's take a let's take a captain or major or Lieutenant, most of them are around my age plus or minus, which means that they grew up their teenage years were growing up under a democracy where, although they may be part of the military, they got to enjoy a lot of freedoms, including the freedom to information, having access to YouTube, Facebook, all social medias that any American or European would have. And, of course, the access to just the freedom to be able to express, you know, short of insulting the commander in chief and Dawn sensoji. directly, you able to say pretty much anything on Facebook. And I think that brings some sort of expectations as to what you want in your life. And that has been taken away. And I think, and I believe, actually that most soldiers actually know this. And so far, they have not been too many defections within the military. But they have been, we are seeing more and more high ranking officers, captains that have deserted the army deserted and defected the army. And these are captains who are on the front line, they are part of active battalions that are actually involved in conflict. And it says a lot when these captains choose to defect, they choose to defect for many reasons. You know, they although they are part of the military, they do not want a military dictatorship that takes away their freedoms as well. And also they want to live in a democracy as well. And so these people are not blind. They are not ideologically hamstrung. And I think they want what we want as well. The only trouble of course, is that, let's say that I'm a captain in the army, and I choose to defect. Where do I go? Whoo, you know, where do I have my safe haven, currently, there is no safe haven. Well, they kind of is if you are able to cross over to where the ethnic groups are. And in fact, one Captain that recently defected that had been interviewed by IFA and BBC, he did not identify where he was, but he said that he is in the territory of an armed group, which is in talks with CRP, ah, and he said that many within the Demerol take his percentages with a grain of salt, but he said 70% of also just do not like and are ready to defect if a federal army is established, so I think the ingredients are there, we just have to put it in a pot and start cooking it. So as important as this idea of defections are many of those people who are on the side of the protests, have concerns about the actual potential and possibility of this taking place. There's a couple of concerns I've seen cited. So I'd be curious to get your take on them. One of them is this very insular thinking within the military institutions, you reference how some of the younger generations were in the military now have been exposed to social media and things like that. And that's certainly true, but at the same time, there's also a boundary and limits in terms of how they interact with the rest of Burmese people outside the military, their social circles, their families, who they marry their activities, etc. So it's just a very insular thinking. And they in that insular thinking they really absorb the fascist propaganda and the belief that they are the ones truly protecting the country. The second concern I've seen cited is that many of the military have their families living in Military compounds, which would put them at immediate risk if they were to just walk off in the middle of an excursion. So when you're looking at this issue and trying to look at ways that this can happen, how would you speak to those two concerns? Right. And number one, without a doubt, they are people who have insulated thinking, who really just live their own bubbles. But I do not think that anyone could say that this is a proper character, an accurate characterization of the entire military. As much as I cannot say that, say 70% of the military does not actually want a military dictatorship. So the if we are going to be statistically honest, nobody knows what the exact statistics are, therefore, the only therefore, we have an hypothesis, and we must try to disprove or prove that hypothesis. And I think having that statistical approach is a much better way of achieving this than to draw a calculation that we choose to believe in. And the second thing, you're absolutely right. So it is, it is like this, right? I mean, let's say you're on a ship, and you are the only one who wants to mutiny. If you're on a ship. And if you're the only one who wants to mutiny, where do you go? What do you do after you tell your captain, I'm not going to rule the boat for you? Well, you're gonna be thrown off board. But in enough people, a mutiny is only when enough people stands up and tells the captain of the ship that he or she is not going to follow orders, then, then, of course, you are safe. And the commanding officer is no longer has any power anymore. So we have two currently, these defection happening in small numbers, one person walking off the base. Like captain, I forgot his name. But there was a captain interview by the New York Times, he actually walked off base when he was stationed in the Congo to crack down on the protesters. And then another Captain also walked off base as well. So but then what if 10 of them walked off base? What if 100 of them decide to walk off the base together? Then what is the what power does the major or the colonel who's in charge have? He has really he has one pistol, but then then the families could reasonably be safe? So of course, it does. It always works better when these things happen in larger numbers to ensure the safety of not just themselves, but also their families. Right. And that's really a wonderful idea that if people in the military war to defect, and to step down, that would certainly be one of the most hopeful, nonviolent strategies one can look at. So people that are hoping for a non violent end of this conflict. That's where one would put all the hope. Another concern I have in pursuing the strategy and seeing it as something that could reach that potential is that within the military, I'm sure you know this better than I do, there has really been a priority placed for the last 70 years of following without questioning orders. Of course, this is true for any military anywhere. But it's particularly true for this military to take whatever orders are given and to execute them brutally to the greatest possible effect. And so what do you think are the possibilities or strategies of how when I'm not speaking specifically, of course, because I don't want you to expose anything that would, would would put you or this idea at risk, but generally speaking, how does one go about trying to encourage a sense of morality of your morality or our morality, our ethics and a internal critical thought process to a group of people where the opposite of that has been heavily inculcated, encouraged rewarded, etc. Right? So you are so that becomes tricky if the approach is to create a federal army and fight them militarily. Then many people within the military who would have been on the fence about following orders because they were given orders to shoot innocent civilians, will now just see the civilians as combatants as actual combatants from another army. So that that does become tricky. But at the same time, you know, we have to, we have to hone in on the propaganda on the message that we are, we may be pointing the barrel of the gun at you. But it is not you that we want to kill it is the military dictatorship that we want to eliminate from the AMA. And I do not know what percentage the military will listen to that argument. I do not know where if some people will even buy the argument at all. But nonetheless, it is very important that once conflict breaks out the messaging, the propaganda, the strategy remains very cohesive, so that we are still able to pry open the cracks in the morality of these soldiers and use it to our advantage.
Host 16:00
Yeah, certainly. And looking at it from the protester side. Right now, 10 weeks or so into the conflict, there's enormous rage and anger and hatred towards the military, the security forces, police officers, the soldiers. So as there is this push to bring more soldiers and police back into the fold of CBM. And the protester side, where do you think the public lands on that? Do you think they would, by and large welcome them and encourage them be satisfied when they come? Or is this immense anger and rage that's out there is that going to be some kind of deterrent and creating an even greater wedge and splitting those sides to an even greater degree,
Ven 16:46
I will tell you a very interesting conversation I had, I have a friend who is married to a major in the nimah, med, medical, military, medical personnels. So the military doctors, we have their own separate command structure. And the husband of my friend, he's a major, we're pretty high ranking. And very, what's very funny is that they just got married a few months before the coup. And once the coup happened, she took down all the photos of the marriage, they're still together, thank goodness, but she hates the military. And her husband also shares the same level of hatred against the actions of his commanding officers. But what she told me is very, and this was the time when the crackdowns had just started, you know, we're talking about deaths, that number still in the dozen. Now, of course, it's 700. So you can imagine it was the very early days of, and I remember, I think it was after a military with a sniper and shot a kid in the head in Mandalay. And, of course, people started the poor, the outrage against the military, started pouring out of everyone. And what she said was great, she said, Oh, the generals are so happy about it. Because they do not have to manufacture propaganda, saying, look, even if you go out on the streets, right now, they're going to eat you alive. They don't have to do that, because we are doing that already. So you know, it is going to be hard to convince people that what we fighting for, is not to kill the rank and file on the streets, but actually the system that they represent, and of course, being the Stooges of the system, they will share, they will have to bear the brunt of our hatred and of our animosity. But at the end of the day, we need to, we need to keep our heads focus on the ultimate goal, which is removing the military dictatorship. But if we still if we are not able to overcome the divide, and we still respond with hate when they come to our side, then it will be very hard, it will be very hard because they will be at the end of the day. The calculation comes down to you know, what is it in for me if I'm to defect, right? I think number one, you will think about yourself and only then only afterwards, you will think about the country. Some people might disagree, but I think it's the more rational, utilitarian approach to thinking about it. soldier would think okay, you know, what, this is for me, will I be able to survive, right and if the immediate answer is Well, even if I defect, people are gonna throw stones at me people are not going to provide me safe haven, then the question is automatically becomes a no answer. And that is, I think, quite not ideal. So we really also have to start, you know, driving the message that we need to welcome these defections. And actually, lately, I have seen a little bit of a slight change in opinion, the IFA interview with the captain, and the New York Times interview with the captain Botha who defected, they really gave a very good insight into the mindset of the military and the soldiers. And both of them said, and many people within the military are not happy about what is happening. And that, you know, they are willing to come to the other side. And I think people are starting to realize, so we need more voices from them from the inside telling this thing. Hey, we want to join, please, we are on your side.
Host 21:08
Right. So it seems like you're doing this high wire balancing act of messaging to both sides to the side of the military, encouraging defections, encouraging them not follow orders, while at the same time trying to defuse the feelings among the protesters that are quite rightly enraged, and to encourage a way of looking that looks more at long term strategy than just doing what feels right in the moment.
Ven 21:40
That's absolutely right. And I actually think that all revolutions are based on this strategy. Well, one of the pillars of any revolution is based on this strategy. In fact, Valdimir Lenin is the is the king of getting soldiers to defect. And during the Russian Revolution, I mean, you will remember that it happened at the backdrop of World War One. And you have, you have Azhar that was unable to control the military, and the military just stopped following orders. That is our gate, and in fact, join, you know, building the Lenin side. So, and he has many, many good quotes on how to win the hearts and minds of the military.
Host 22:30
So have you been doing a bit of studying historically into how defections have taken place in other campaigns and other places?
Ven 22:36
Oh, yes, yes. You know, I have been, in fact, I am quite convinced that this is the winning strategy. You know, this is the final nail in the coffin. Of course, we need, we need to engage in combat against the military. This is my personal belief. But if we if we're not able to implement the strategy, effectively, then what we will see is a protracted conflict, the likes of what is happening in Syria, or Libya. And mind you even in Syria, there were many generals and battalions that actually defected over to the Free Syrian Army or the resistance in Libya. So we really need to make sure the terminal crumbles on its own. Do you It's interesting. You mentioned the Syria example of where defections actually took place and it wasn't enough. So that makes me wonder, do you have any approximate idea of what is enough for you to be successful? Whether you answer that question by numbers and percentages or by region or by high ranking officers, but do you have any sense in your mind of what needs to be aim for in order to create that kind of tipping point where the balance starts to swing to the other side? Right. I do not think anybody has a percentage. Mind you, I do think that the Free Syrian Army would have won if we went for Russian air support. So thankfully, we will not have Russia giving air support to Mr. de Muro or China for that matter. But having said that, I mean, I think the rule of thumb is, the more the better, right. So we should try to I do not know what is the tipping point that changes the whole calculus of conflict, but the more the better.
Host 24:44
That's an interesting comment that you just made. So if I understand you correctly, you believe that China and Russia will not be involved or engage in any way should a conflict develop, because that certainly has been quite a serious fear of some people in for castine what could come
Ven 25:01
if there is conflict? I do believe that China and Russia will part well, well be involved in the conflict. But the the comparison that I was making was with Syria, where in Syria, you actually have Russian Air airplanes, fighter jets, you know, being flown by Russian pilots in the Syrian airspace on Syria, territory, bombs, dropping bombs on the Free Syrian Army. And I do not think that neither China or Russia will come in to well set in their troops, whether it be boots or whether it be airplanes into Mama. But of course, that is not to say that Russia and China will not give arms ammunition financial support to the military, if conflict is to break out.
Host 25:55
Right. So concerning this issue of defections, how worried how vulnerable Do you think the top military feels in looking at this concern from their side?
Ven 26:09
I think they are very worried. In fact, in the New York Times article, where they interviewed the captain, I forgot his name. You know, we all thought that the internet cut off the mobile data internet cut off was because they wanted to stop ordinary people from broadcasting live, what's happening through Facebook Live. That is part of the reason, he said, but what is a bigger reason, according to him, is that they want to impose a complete information blackout on military personnels did what they are more scared is that the soldiers are stationed across the country. Even in mind you you know, this captain was actually part of the special Light Infantry Division 77 he was taken from Shan state, put in the streets of Yangon to kill to express signee killed civilians. He participated in the crackdown for a week. But he said at night, he would secretly use his phone and read the news. And he starts realizing that these were ordinary people with families, seeing the photos of families cry, he will cry. In the interview, he said he will cry on the car so that other people do not see him. And he finally decided base. So it is they are very worried. And that's why they have started imposing information blackouts. And from the, from conversations that I've had with family members who are part of the military, like you said, they all live in a big compound. And they are not, they are now no longer even allowed to go out of the compound, even if they want to go buy groceries, they have to do it within the military market, you are not even able to go out anymore. So the military is very scared. And they are tightly controlling the information access of its own soldiers. And I do think that that will backfire. Because the soldiers like you, I said to you before, these are people who know who have experienced the social freedoms that came with the democratic regime, and how long can they be holed up? To be honest with you? I mean, most people don't go and complain all the time that, gosh, we don't have internet on our mobile phones. We don't have internet after 1am. We don't have broadband internet. You know, we can't go out like we used to before. But actually the people with the guns, the soldiers that I have in worse, because not only do they not have internet all the time, they can't even freely go out anymore. So they are in a worse situation. And I do think that one, that sooner or later they're gonna start thinking, geez, you know, why are we being held like prisoners, when they tell us that we are going to be the saviors of this nation? What are they afraid of? Why are they afraid of us going out and they're going to start questions. People are curious beings. And we have to hope that they ask questions sooner. And when they asked that when they start asking questions, we have to be prepared to give answers so that they come to our site.
Host 29:37
Right. So that brings up an important question of what kind of communication is even taking place. You reference that when they have questions, you need to be ready with answers. Questions and Answers can only happen when two sides are talking in some way. And from what I've heard, as the military has replaced the police with times of the police in February, I heard that there was Some kind of interaction and, and reasoning and even some gifts or goodwill that was given to the police, you know, like water or food or something on a hot day. And that has changed now with really seeing a violent conflict. And so in the current situation, what type of communication between the two sides at any level is even happening now or possible to happen. So,
Ven 30:26
you know, before it was relatively easy to get in, communicate with the security forces, because they use Facebook, they use tik tok. But now, like I've said, there's a total information blackout. So there are many ways, you know, I know of one group who is trying to communicate to the soldiers using radio frequency waves. And but of course, that still requires a radio or a telephone where they have to listen. And the other thing, the next thing is just to communicate them while they're on the streets patrolling the patrolling and night, or while the station at in the middle of the city during the day. And I think there are many innovative ways of doing it. My friends and I are exploring how to communicate them while they are in the cities. So our options are limited, but nonetheless, they are still there, they are still many opportunities. And like I've said, We must take every opportunity available.
Host 31:38
Right, looking at it from your side and your group of people that are trying to pursue defections, and having the security forces join CDM. Just how dangerous is this work?
Ven 31:51
It's very dangerous. Because let's say if they find us at night, doing something, especially during curfew time, they have the license to shoot to kill immediately when they don't even have to get down from their cars and ask questions, they can shoot us right away. Even during the day, of course, during the day, the danger of getting shot immediately is less. But nonetheless, it just brings the possibility that there might be spies. So lately, I see I'm always wandering my streets at night. And the police not only patrol with the police in the soldiers, not only patrol with their trucks, but also with taxis. I don't know where to get these taxis, but they always going I know two taxis that are always near my house around 850. And they come and go, they come and go. Of course, no taxi driver would dare to come and go like that during that time, after curfew time. So it has to be, you know, the intelligence officers or whatnot. So the risk is there. But then again, so many people have also given up their lives for the, you know, to express their thoughts and conscience. And I think this is a risk that we all must take, if we are to avoid the cost of having to live under a dictatorship, right. And it's not just the risk of going outside at a certain time curfew or not curfew, as I understand it, it's also a risk of if you're going to be designing and printing certain types of informations that you want to share, you need to find a way to print it somewhere you need to find a way to store it, you need to find a way to hand it out or to fix it to walls or street somewhere in public. If you're communicating with different people, you you know, every communication seems like it would be high risk in some way on both sides that there can definitely be people on the other side that are showing signs of interest, but it's really an entrapment kind of thing. So I imagine every step of how you're thinking through pursuing this campaign, that there are just inherent dangers in every part of the process. Oh, you're absolutely, absolutely right. And thank goodness, I do watch a lot of spy shows. So at least that there is always in order to set up a network you know, each node must be independent. So, if they catch one of us, then the truth is lost almost immediately. So, there is a core group of us who are leading it but any other people that we interact with, they do not know our names, they do not know our phone numbers we use online numbers that we can easily buy from the internet. They do not they even if they we have to pass cash or pass material wheels, we all only use drop off points. We never meet each other. So in essence, although we are working together, hopefully, they never know who we are will never know who they are as much as they, at the end of the day, they might like the idea they might want to work with us, but then we might be in trapping them as well. Right? They never know, they might ask the same question. So it's for the best that we don't know who they are. They don't know who we are. I don't know anyone else and anyone else doesn't know me. Yeah, that kind of leads to my next question, how you began what you were saying, mentioning that you watch a lot of spy movies. And so that gives you some idea of how to do it. But you know, really seriously speaking like you and everyone else that has been propelled into this where leading normal lives and just a boring ordinary society like any others. And now all of a sudden people are looking at defensive techniques and tactics and strategies for offensives or safe houses for communication for defections and this kind of thing. So how, what has it been like for you personally, to go from whatever you were doing before February 1, to being thrust into the heart of some of these spy and suspense movies that you were watching and have to learn on the fly in a very high stakes situation? Yes, it is quite a steep learning curve. I will tell you that. Nobody, nobody. I don't think anybody envision their lives to be this way. I mean, your mom, right. But then again, you know, I think of a movie that I really like Saving Private Ryan, I'm sure you know, you know, Tom Hanks is a captain needs a search team. And the privates and the sergeants asked him, Captain, what were you before the war? And he said, I was a teacher in some Midwestern town, right? So I mean, I guess our lives are somewhat, of course, this is nothing like World War Two, or D day. But nonetheless, you know, when you live in a country that is prone to conflict and crisis, your lives can be handed any time. And that is just life and the life in a country like Myanmar. And of course, in many other countries like Myanmar at this point, Syria, Libya, Central African Republic, the Congo, and I don't I there's some people, of course, choose not to be part of it. But you know, for myself, I just cannot let this country go back to the past. And I cannot see that happened again. I mean, did this happen for for two decades of my life? And I got to enjoy 10 years 10 years of progress. And, and I just cannot let it happen. Yeah, right. And another thing is, when you're looking at this issue of defections, part of that is some kind of moral reckoning. And you're, you're actually putting two sets of morals against each other, you're putting the sense of morals of a military institution, following orders and having what they call stability. And on the other side, of course, that's looking at a more human way of what ethics and morals are and doing the right thing of not harming people. And when you look at that conventional understanding of ethics, in any society, you go back to its religion and spirituality, here in Myanmar, the spirituality for many people rests on the Buddhist Sangha, the monks, the monkhood who uphold or or are supposed to uphold some kind of virtue and right livelihood following a discipline of the Buddha sat down many years ago. So when we're looking at this messaging that one wants to get out to the soldiers to actually have a war of ideas to have a war of ethics clashing and to want to have our own ethics be the victor there. Where would you see the monks fitting in to that battle into that discussion, given their role of supposedly providing some kind of moral or ethical righteousness? Right. Without a doubt, monks can play a huge, tremendous role. Even though my beliefs and Buddhism have waned, I still give the courtesy respect in deference to a monk whenever I meet him, and I mean, if I'm doing that, and will no doubt as a religious person, who which I think we all consume, many people in Myanmar religious will no doubt listen to what a monk will have to say. And they are, you know, several dozens of months who have immense sway over public opinion. And I think they need to stand up, they need to stand up, they need to speak on the right, they need to be on the right side of history. They need to speak from a religious perspective. But at the end of the day, even without all the doctrinal issues and theological challenges of whatever is it, it's with politics, at the end of the day, they need to speak from their own conscience. And I think we all can agree. I think we all human beings and agree that killing unarmed civilians, killing children, mutilating bodies, mutilating the dead, in any culture, any religion is wrong. And you don't need to be a Buddhist monk to say that it is wrong. But if you are a Buddhist monk, you should have even more reason to say why it is wrong.
Host 41:20
Right, well said. And to date, we have not seen a wide number of Buddhist monks speaking out in that way. So I'm curious, why do you think that is the case? And can anything be done to gently encourage them from the lay side to at the very least take some kind of moral stand of a minimum case of simply encouraging not to kill and brutalize in these extreme ways?
Ven 41:51
The monkhood the Tonga, they have a very strict hierarchy as strict as the military itself. You know, the the, the highest Council, which can order iidx that every dunga has to follow. So we find we find a situation within the monkhood the same challenges that are inherent in the military where you're not allowed to question the authority of the monk above you and the authority of the Council. And of course, so it does have to come from the highest Council. And actually, I think two weeks ago, the council issued a statement effectively condemning the actions of the military and the police. But I don't think it has to be issued yet because they made the, in my opinion, mistake of consulting with the Ministry of Religious Affairs, which is controlled by the military. So that is like, that is like the jury asking whether the decision is correct or not to the defendant that they are going to convict. And, of course, what would the defendant say? He sees the guilty guilty verdict video say, Are you sure jury that is never going to work? Right. What you're doing on your side there in Myanmar to try to encourage this is really courageous with your small group of friends. You're speaking mainly to a foreign audience hear that is listening in and I think many of them would strongly, strongly support some way that we can limit the carnage that could come and this is one of the as I said, from the outset, this is one of the greatest hopes for non violence proceeding. Is there anything that the foreign audience listening can do in any way to support this process happening? Right. Um, I think that without a doubt, media coverage, it's important, I think, and specifically, in fact, you can right after this podcast, you can google defections, revolution, just those two words. And you will see a whole literature on of Political Science on this issue. This issue is something that is not new. What I'm saying to you is not something that I ingeniously thought of now that I mean, revolutions have happened so many times in history. We are just repeating and learning from what was done well. So, international community, you know, your internet and your friends abroad. I mean, short of providing money. There's so much that you can do and I think what we need is to educate the populace in Yama. about the need for defections. And I think they need to be, like we've said before, we need to. It's like balancing on a tightrope where you once on one side, you have the messaging that goes out to the security forces. And also the messaging that goes out to the people. I am focused on messaging towards the security forces. And people like you, people like me, people who are interested, can focus on messaging towards the people saying why we need to focus on this issue, how we can how this strategy will make us make sure that we have a winning winning goal. And to do that, it is not too hard, the literature is already there. So in a way, all you have to do is to write a research report and, you know, disseminate with the public, you reference that you have been studying quite a bit, how defections have happened in other campaigns. And I assume that most of your research has been after February 1, I don't know if this is something you just were curious about before. But in any case, through the work and the research and the reading that you've done, what has stood out to you, what has surprised you? What have you hit upon and some of the patterns of some of the things that you've read, that you find especially relevant or meaningful or helpful at this moment? Um, essentially, you know, okay, so I actually think we have an easier we have an easier situation than most other revolutions. Because most of the revolutions, you have to convince the other side that what you're fighting for, is just and worthy. I do think I do think and of course, many people can dispute it. And like I said, this is not a fact, this is my belief, my hypothesis, my working hypothesis, is that many people win the military, even the top brass, the soldiers, captains, majors, lieutenants, privates, many people make a lot of them believe that what we are fighting for is just and worthy. So that makes it easier, because now we don't have to, I don't have to be Valdimir Lenin, traveling around the country making speeches on why our cause is just unworthy, when they already believe that our justice costs in worthy. Now, the only option is for them to start acting upon their own conscience. And like I said, people are at the end of the day, self interested human beings where they will not act unless and until they feel that it is for their own benefit. And that and by benefit, I mean, it doesn't necessarily mean monetary benefits of that kind. It means whether they will be safe or not, whether their life will be protected. And that will happen only when mass numbers of soldiers and police defect together. And in fact, I think, was a quote by someone, maybe another Russian revolutionary, who said that defections and mutinies happen when people who want to do it but have not express it, finally expressed it together. Of course, this is not a code, that the guy said it much better than I did. But let's say you and I, and another guy, we are in the mess hall. And we both want to do it. But we're not able to communicate, although we're just right beside each other. And but if we're able to push them to a tipping point where they're like, Hey, are you thinking what I'm thinking? And the other guy goes, I'm also thinking what both of you are thinking, and then three of them will be like, hey, well, that makes three of us. What about the guys at the other table? I think they're also thinking while we're thinking, and before you know it, you might have 100 soldiers who are marching out of their basis at night, threatening their major saying you either join us we should do right now. And that's what happened in Sudan recently in 2019. That's what happened with the revolution that brought down president Marcos in the Philippines. So we have to reach a point where, where they are able to speak out, and then start realizing that they are not the only ones. This also makes me wonder about what the military was thinking and expecting on February 1, and I wonder if you have any insight into what they might have expected could happen or what they might have even planned for as contingencies. Well, I once saw an article headline that that read the world's worst plan cool. And I think it is true, it is true. They severely underestimated You know, the resistance people would put up? And I think, I mean, many people actually characterize at the terminal as this, you know, like insulated organization, I think more so than the people at the bottom. The people at the top are more insulated than the people at the bottom. And they they believe in their own lives. And you know, mind you, I'm human cultures where you never, especially when you are dealing with generals who never say a word that would displease them. So if the general is like, you know, I want you to find any cases of voter fraud, you know, you will not even question if, you know, you don't even question anything, he says, you know, you'll just try to support his statement by saying, Oh, you know, here Here are cases and you will go as far as to concoct up numbers and facts, so that you, it supports what he believes to be true. So I do think that, you know, the, the trouble is on their site, and not so much on our site.
Host 51:19
Right, so I know that we're catching you, and you're in the middle of a couple of things, I really appreciate you taking the time to be able to check in with us about this. I before we let you go, I just want to make sure that you are able to use our platform to the maximum ability to get your message and your thinking out. So has there been anything that else that you wanted to say that my questions or our conversation hasn't yet gotten to?
Ven 51:45
I think we've touched on pretty much all of the points and but maybe one thing that I want to say to any listeners in the AMA or abroad, you know, I think at this point, nothing is a given right, it is not a given that the terminal will win, it is not a given that they will lose it is not a given that we will win or we will lose it is not a given that they are this mighty Goliath that will be very hard to beat. So, I think at this point, we should not take any assumptions for granted. We should only have a working hypothesis. And we should work towards, you know, either confirming these hypothesis or disproving these hypothesis, because really, it is a game where the person who is most open minded and tries, the widest variety of approaches will win. And I think if you study, this is the same case with war as well. any conflict, any politics, anything I in fact, this is the scientific method apply to warfare. Your well said and I really appreciate that thought coming out. Because from the first days of the coup, it was reported in a lot of Western media. I remember in New York Times, especially that, okay, well this happened and this experiment of democracy is over. And now we're going back to these battle days. And that was kind of the short space of the news article that was often the summary that I saw on most papers in the first week, looking you might be able to forgive them for not having a deeper, more nuanced understanding of me and Margaret, having bureau chiefs that split their time between a lot of different countries and Myanmar, certainly a harder country to understand than others more complex issues. But you also saw a number of Western scholars on Myanmar, certainly not all of them. But some who also had a certain kind of finale view and understanding of how this would end up. But there was just that the odds were just too great. This is just a sad case. And this is how things are. And actually just an hour before doing this interview, I heard NPR interview with another famous scholar, an American who can't after 10 weeks is still supporting that view of saying this is this is the way this is how things will end there's no other sadly, there's no other outcome that we can see here. And I think that what you're bringing to this is so important because everything we do matters, this conversation matters, the people that are listening to this conversation, it matters that you're listening to it, what you do after the conversation that also matters. These things, I don't want to be naive, these things aren't like it's going to snap your fingers and magics gonna happen. But we all have something to contribute wherever we are, whatever our role is, if we care about it. This is something that's ongoing, it's a game it's open, it's things are going to turn on a dime. And momentum is a real thing. And every small little bit of action contributes to that momentum. And so we don't know how this will end and if someone if you read Someone or hear someone telling you that based on their expert analysis, you know, spoiler alert, but they probably don't exactly know the ending. It's just a hypothesis. But if we're able to live through this moment by moment, and day by day, there are things that we can do to contribute to wanting freedom and safety and democracy to be able to win out. That's absolutely right. And, you know, I think any scholar of history will say that any pundit, any scholar, any expert, who says this is going to happen, this will happen. There always been terribly, terribly wrong. In a whether it's experts in the 60s saying Vietnam will be a quick victory for the United States. Right? It didn't turn out to be that way. And the same experts, the same scholars of international relations and politics and warfare, said Afghanistan was going to be a quick victory. Sure, the United States defeated the Taliban, with minimal boots on the ground and just bombing the heck out of Kabul, but ways the United States right now having to fight a protracted war and having to negotiate with the Taliban for an exit. So, again, and again, in especially in such a volatile situation such as this, it is never right, nor strategically correct, to take assumptions for granted as on unchanging factors. Everything is open to change. And like I said, at the end of the day, for Myanmar people, I think, a quote by Abraham Lincoln is very appropriate. During the Civil War, he said, I say try, because if we don't try, we will fail. And I think that is exactly what I'm doing. I'm just trying,
Host 56:59
and trying to certainly what you're doing, and really all of our best wishes, and hope and support is with you as you do this. And thank you so much for taking the time to share your thoughts and what you're doing and continue to use this platform as you want to reach out. And we just wish the best for you and your friends in what it is you're doing. And may you be successful, and may you be safe.
Ven 57:26
Thank you so much. Thank you, and thank you for your constant support as well.
Host 57:41
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