The junta's only hope
The following submission was written by a member of the National Unity Government. For safety reasons the author has requested anonymity. This is the latest essay in a series of reflections, and the first submission can be read here.
“If the SAC cannot directly gain foreign support, it can do the next best thing and prevent the PDF from getting that same support.”
By pointing to these videos of torture and murder, the junta can claim that either the NUG is so weak that it cannot prevent its own forces from brazenly violating the Code of Conduct on video, or the NUG is complicit in the crimes. This, the junta will argue, demonstrates that an NUG victory will not establish a strong central government under the rule of law, but rather usher in an age of warlords and local armies. The revolutionary forces will be painted as “bad guys” fighting “bad guys” – a situation no western government wants to be embroiled in – and as more and more civilians bolster the ranks of the Pyu Saw Hti and related groups, the junta will claim that the end of the conflict is nowhere in sight. In the meantime, the junta has worked hard to hide its own crimes. Gone are the early days of 2021 when crimes by soldiers and police flooded social media every day. The military have moved their operations further out into the rural and border areas where internet and electricity have been cut off, thereby stemming the flow of evidence of their atrocities and crimes against humanity. While those in Myanmar may not have noticed the subtle shift in the regime's messaging and the gradual reduction in the severity of content on social media, these changes are shaping attitudes and opinions in the west, and may play a key role in softening the junta's image, and undermining the NUG's diplomacy.
For the SAC this would be a major victory. If the SAC cannot directly gain foreign support, it can do the next best thing and prevent the PDF from getting that same support. Of course, as western powers slowly slink away from the conflict, regional and major powers with a vested interest in suppressing democracy and keeping Myanmar poor and cheap will find it easier to circumvent sanctions and aid the junta without fear of global condemnation. From a strategic standpoint, this is the junta's only hope, and they have been quietly but consistently laying the foundation for a PR victory on the world stage for some time.