The NUG: "What is the alternative to this succeeding?"
In the following passage from Philipp Annawitt, taken from our podcast discussion earlier in the year, he’s basically saying, "Hey, sure, everyone's criticizing the NUG and the other democratic actors in this coalition, but have you considered the alternative? Because it's pretty bleak."
He's not wrong, of course. If the democratic actors fail, what's the alternative? More military rule? Yeah, that's worked out so well in the past. Maybe we'll get lucky and the military junta will suddenly become competent and start governing effectively. Ha! That's about as likely as me growing wings and flying to the moon.
But Annawitt doesn't stop there. He reminds us that the junta isn't just bad because they're evil (although, let's be real, that's a pretty big reason), but also because they're just plain incompetent! And he's not wrong. It's truly mind-boggling how bad they are at governing. It's like they're actively trying to make things worse.
And yet, some countries still don't care about the rights of the people or democratic values. They're more interested in economic stability and playing nice with the junta. Well, I guess if your idea of economic stability is "everyone lives in fear and oppression and there's no rule of law," then sure, go ahead and cozy up to the military regime.
But for the rest of us who actually care about human rights and democracy, supporting the NUG and its coalition partners is a no-brainer. Sure, they're not perfect, but compared to the alternative? It's a pretty easy choice.
“So, whenever we judge what the democratic actors do with their limited resources, we should also look at what the junta regime doesn’t do, and is incapable of doing.”
“There's one thing that I've continuously tried to highlight in the work that I’ve done. It is that all the criticism that can be leveled at - and I'm not only talking about the NUG but all the other actors that are there in the democratic coalition, the criticisms of the NUCC, the criticisms of the CRPH - what we should do is think about the alternative to this. What is the alternative to this succeeding?
You would not have elections in 2023 that will produce another transition. You would not have a state, in my honest assessment, that's anywhere close to the boundaries of Myanmar right now. You would not have regional stability. So, whenever we judge what the democratic actors do with their limited resources, we should also look at what the junta regime doesn't do, and is incapable of doing.
They're not just bad because they're evil, they're bad because they're incompeten!. And that is something that I think should be more worrying to countries that, frankly, don't really care as much about the rights of the people, or that are less liberally minded and more interested in economic stability. Just think about how spectacularly bad this junta is at governing! And then with that in mind, I think anybody in a position of decision-making and in a sympathetic country can maybe make a better case about why supporting the NUG and the coalition partners of the NUG is a good thing.”