Episode #235: At the Crossroads of Conflict
“I'm a lawyer and journalist, and I'm an advocate for Burma,” begins Peter Morris by way of self-introduction, who was also the former Editor at the Asia Times. “And so that causes challenges sometimes, because when you're a journalist, in theory, you're supposed to be unbiased.”
Morris begins with sketching out his background to give context to his recent article published in The Diplomat, “Why the US Needs to Back Myanmar’s Spring Revolution.” “I was trying to inform US policymakers that the Spring Revolution is on the verge of winning. They're going to win relatively soon! So we’ve got to think about what to do, and at the very least, you’ve got to ramp up humanitarian aid, because that will expedite by itself the fall of the junta, because it'll free up resources that are currently being used by resistance organizations to feed and house all these refugees and injured people.”
However, his call for urgent humanitarian need addresses not just the Americans, but Myanmar’s neighbors as well; he believes that a multilateral approach is the only way it can be truly effective. This is where his interest in China, in particular, comes in. “They want to build this corridor to the Indian Ocean,” he says. “But on the other hand, they need stability to do that. And they've realized by now that the junta cannot provide them with this stability. So that's one of the reasons why they tacitly supported Operation 1027.” Morris believes Beijing doesn’t exactly know how to best achieve its goal of regional stability given the immense complexity of the conflict, which also informs the attempted (but limited) ceasefires it has tried to broker.
Morris was also driven to write his article partly based on what he sees as paltry international coverage of the conflict, and a concern that policymakers weren’t hearing the full story. Western media has not allocated resources there as they have for such crises as Gaza and Ukraine. As an example, he cites The New York Times’ recent article, “The Country That Bombs Its Own People.” While satisfied with the piece, which reports on incidents that have been occurring since the coup, he questions the reason for its delayed publication. Rather than taking time to cross check all relevant claims, Morris emphasizes that oral testimonies from affected individuals should act as legitimate evidence in journalism and law, and the many horrible incidents addressed in this article could and should have been reported on soon after they occurred.
Another of Morris’s goals in writing his piece was to alert policymakers about future economic opportunities in Myanmar that they should begin preparing for when— not if— the military falls. There is also a need for urgent, nation-building that will require investment, in infrastructure, health, education, and other key sectors. He’s especially keen on attracting Japanese investment, given their historic ties, knowing that they “like to do these public-private partnership projects, and so Japanese companies will be eager to get involved, because they can get contracts from Japanese government.”
From there, Morris turns to the question of ASEAN’s role and involvement. Somewhat contrary to Kasit Piromya’s criticism of Thailand’s engagement on a previous episode, Morris feels encouraged by the Thai government’s recent statements. “Thailand is clear that it wants to be a leader in the humanitarian aid effort,” he notes. “They explicitly said that if Myanmar falls apart, it's going to affect the entire region.” Morris is concerned that the humanitarian needs will only multiply as the end of the conflict gets closer, as the typical military playbook has been to commit yet greater atrocities against the civilian population after suffering losses on the battlefield. “People might complain that Thailand is only working directly with the junta and that's not effective. But I think the only reason they're working with the junta on this is to save face. Meanwhile, they're making alternative plans, such as having a humanitarian aid operation led by ASEAN.”
But while the international community may express concern about the country’s devastation as the coup stretches on, there has been much debate as to what kind of support is most needed. Morris is by no means a proponent of Americans or others providing lethal aid to the NUG, but he does feel there is much more that can be done; first and foremost, this means ensuring that everything Congress allocated via the Burma Act is delivered immediately. He wonders if perhaps the reason this has not happened is the continual fear of China, and that Beijing could misinterpret such support as the start of a proxy war that the Americans are initiating on their doorstep, prompting them to respond in kind. “But I think they can push the limit a little bit,” he adds, “And yes, it's a risk, we don't want to be naive about it. But I don't think it's a big risk, and it's a risk worth taking. Because the faster the junta is defeated, the less people will suffer.” Still, as the junta has not been able to provide the stability that China craves for its investments, Morris thinks that this is a calculated risk that is at least worth considering, especially when taking into account the NUG’s recent assurances that it will crack down on scam centers, welcome Chinese investments, and even going so far as to insist it will not recognize Taiwan. “The era of the US doing crazy shit in in Myanmar is over,” he says wryly.
Another theme that Morris pushes back against is the idea that the Burmese people are hopelessly fragmented, and that as soon as the military falls, cooperation between the country’s different ethnic groups will end. But this is not what he has witnessed thus far. Having attended fundraising events the world over, he is encouraged by how diverse the attendees are. “I talk to these people in Burmese, and they tell me, ‘We want to win the revolution! We want to set up a democracy.’ Nobody says, ‘Oh, we want to win the revolution and set up an independent Karen state or an independent Rakhine State.’ I haven't ever heard that. They're really keen about establishing a unified Myanmar.” To Morris, the idea of a looming civil war and power vacuum is an old narrative based on past history, rather than one based in recent developments.
“We still have to be patient, that's going to be key,” he says in closing. “Nothing good ever comes easy. Rome wasn't built in a day. I've learned that patience is so important in life. There's a lot of momentum right now, especially after 1027, and yes, we want to capitalize on this momentum.” With that said, he stresses the importance of taking a moment to appreciate all that’s been accomplished up till now. “After all the successes that they've had going up against this powerful military, with little help from the outside, largely on their own, well, it's been an epic struggle, and they're winning! Many books will be written about this struggle. And women are involved, even on the front lines as well. It's nurses doing all kinds of other things, taking leadership roles. It's a movement, it's a revolution.”