Episode #211: Climb Every Mountain
Where does most conflict occur in Myanmar between military forces and ethnic armed groups? This is the question that Enze Han set out to find. Han, who is an Associate Professor at the Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong, co-authored an article entitled “Rugged terrain, forest coverage, and insurgency in Myanmar,” which is the basis for today’s talk.
His findings, which analyzed the period between 2010-2018, indicated that most conflict avoids the extremes of either high- or low-density forests. “So what does that mean?” he asks rhetorically. “It means that there is a very strategic consideration when rebels and government militaries engage in militarized conflict with each other.” Ethnic fighters recognize both the forest’s tactical advantages and their opportunities for refuge, and the military must engage them there. However, if the forest is too dense, conflict is much less likely because military forces with superior arms and motorized vehicles are not able to navigate through it. So ethnic forces avoid low density forests and the military avoids high density forests; thus, the fighting happens where ethnic forces are more easily able to hide and the military is still able to navigate and move supplies to engage them. “Our results indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship between civil conflict and forest coverage,” he explains.
Han adds that elevation is also a factor in this calculus. While the country’s ethnic forces have always preferred the high terrain of their home areas, the military have established bases in the mountains too, although historically, their stronghold has been the relatively flat expanse of the country’s largely Bamar Dry Zone. Han explains that from their mountain footholds, the military engages in systematic deforestation, which deprives ethnic forces of their cover and safety, and allows for the construction of new roads. At the same time and for no less a reason, it lines the pockets of military leaders and their cronies (discussed in detail in a previous episode regarding the teak trade).
It’s important to keep in mind that Han’s study occurred before the coup, when conflict was mostly limited to military-ethnic skirmishes in the mountainous and forested, tribal regions far from the Bamar heartland. Indeed, following World War II, conflict in Bamar territory was limited to that initiated by the Burmese Communist Party, and even then, they preferred areas of slightly higher altitude, such as the Yoma Mountains in Rakhine state.
Han explains that one of the biggest differences between his data and post-coup Myanmar is that now there is also frequent conflict between Bamar-led PDF groups and the Burmese military. But again, there seems to be a preference for higher and more forested terrain, as it provides an asymmetrical advantage against a better-armed foe, and is more conducive for guerilla activity. He says that this scenario is playing out throughout Sagaing and Magwe today. “If the goal is to eliminate the military and then have the revolution take over the whole country, that will require to change the asymmetry of power, which means that unless the resistances are becoming better equipped with tanks and airplanes and everything else, otherwise, that will probably be difficult.”
Han notes that his study is one of the few in this field that incorporates quantitative methodology along with more traditional on-the-ground research. He explains that if researchers can access the appropriate data sets, they can better understand and analyze patterns of conflict; this includes satellite data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) mapping, which provide a macro-understanding of the context. A fundamental challenge for the continuation of this kind of research in Myanmar is that, at present, undertaking studies on the ground in the country is almost impossible.
Han’s ground-breaking, data-driven research sheds important light on how conflict is managed in Myanmar. But it's crucial to remember that it nests in a very human crisis. Beyond the data and academic analysis lies the reality of lives in the balance, where the ongoing conflict continues to takes its toll on communities and individuals. Han’s study carries profound implications for the people in the country’s mountainous and forested regions caught up in these tumultuous situations.