Yangon Journal: An Anxious City Waits
The following essay submission comes from Aiden Rivers, a pseudonym for someone who cannot reveal their identity for safety reasons.
“It seems the military is regrouping and possibly preparing to defend Yangon at any cost if need be. Or they’re taking Yangon hostage.”
There is anxiety and pressure upon the head and shoulders of the middle class and the upper class population of Yangon. The working class and the poor really can’t tell the difference between the National League for Democracy or the Military government. They remain working for rice and they stay poor no matter who is in charge. Actually, without seeing the troops or being aware of the civil war, it’s hard for anyone in Yangon to tell that there is conflict in Myanmar. Just a week ago, the hopeful happy talk was about the resistance overcoming the military. That talk energized people who felt like the resistance was winning. Yet, while there have been victories for the rebels, unless they are naïve to how media works, I can’t believe the rebels do not put out their own propaganda to distort their achievements. While the military was defeated during the recently coordinated rebel offensive, reports from foreign observers outside Myanmar about the impending defeat of the military were premature. The Myanmar military is not going away.
The heavy military presence in Yangon is the most since the 2021 coup. Now the cheerful talk from locals has turned to dire talk of preparing for shortages of food and supplies, and possibly martial law. People worry that if the fighting comes to Yangon, they will suffer from aerial bombings and street battles. One thing is for sure, there is a realignment of the military taking place, and it seems like it will hold. Yet, many people now believe the ethnic forces will assemble and descend from the hilltops and exit the jungles to meet the military in the low country to defeat the government and save Myanmar. That’s a serious mis-belief. They will still be small armies of rebels. How well coordinated will they become when fighting away from their homeland remains to be seen. Fighting for your homeland is different from fighting far from home.
In Myanmar, at every level of society, contracts and agreements mean nothing and they are only worth the paper they’re written on. Thus, will all factions of the resistance follow the commands of a government in exile and take the fight nationwide as they agreed to do? Who can predict they will? Once they’ve secured their territory, why would they leave it undefended from an incursion by the opportunistic Chinese, who at the moment are just observing as the fighting plays out? China might seize land along its border if if the borders are undefended from inside Myanmar.
Recapping, the Military lost territory in the recent battles but it is not defeated, far from it. But one thing no one is talking about it how crafty the Myanmar military is. Could they now be drawing back from the north to lure the rebel armies away from their homelands? If so, China might move in to secure the northern regions for the Myanmar military. Nothing is out of the realm of possibility - nothing.
The National Unity Government is also fragile. Outside Myanmar, the feckless United Nations feigns support for the NUG. However, occasional UN statements and photo ops with NUG officials are a far cry from genuine support. The UN is just slithering by to rush in with their INGOs to take control of Myanmar in the guise of supporting the National Unity Government. They’ve done so once before during the reform period between 2013 to 2021, and they cancelled Aung San Suu Kyi. The globalists will cancel nationalists Dr. Sasa and Zin Mar Aung too. Especially if they try to lead Myanmar back from the abyss without bending the knee to the UN and World Economic Forum, if they already haven’t. Neither Dr. Sasa and Zin Mar Aung could care one second about globalism while they seek freedom from the Myanmar military. If the UN rushes in like the snakes that they are and cancel NUG leaders, and of course they will, Myanmar loses anyway.
Gas rationing is taking its toll on taxi drivers who openly complain about the rationing to customers. While the military chases away people lined up to get gas, and accuses people of trying to hurt Myanmar if they reclaim money from their bank accounts, Yangon is still operating on full throttle. Most people are unaware of the military now taking over government schools and turning them into military bases. On Pyay road near the airport, one day an endless convoy of military trucks filled with troops and arms appeared out of nowhere and they are now camped at a military site nearby. It seems the military is regrouping and possibly preparing to defend Yangon at any cost if need be. Or they're taking Yangon hostage, and if conditions continue to deteriorate for the people in Yangon, there will be protests. When it was said to a young businesswoman that if there are protests, the military will react as usual and shoot down protesters. Upon hearing that, the young woman angrily said, “This time we fight back. No running. We go all the way.” This is the mindset of the people of Myanmar. They are afraid, but they’ve had enough.
Given the civil war has been a brutal one for civilians, the National Unity Government does not want a wider conflict that will destroy any more villages, towns and cities, thereby killing thousands of more innocent people. Plus, since the military government has proven itself willing to kill anything that moves, as it retreats into high-density population centers to protect their interests, they are more dangerous than ever to the people of Myanmar. Any rational person may find it hard to imagine why the military government regards Myanmar’s people as their enemy, but they do. Look for negotiations to begin shortly. Although NUG has indicated they will not negotiate, they must look for a peaceful path forward no matter how disagreeable it may be to everyone not wearing a military uniform. Further conflict is not a solution that benefits anyone.